On 3/4/20 12:22 pm, Kate Lance wrote:
The most complete stats I have seen are at:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
They give you per capita cases & deaths, and if you click on a country there
are very detailed graphs.
Nice thanks Kate.
Now, if that was a wiki, someone could fork an extended table with an
additional column, showing:
- Normal Death-Rate, but expressed as p.mo. per million
(= the usual p.a. per '000 divided by 12 and multiplied by 1,000)
>> Spain 9.1 becomes 758 Normal in 1mth cf. 221 CV-linked deaths so far
>> Italy 10.4 becomes 866 cf. 230
>> UK 9.4 becomes 783 cf. 43
(Simplifying assumption: all countries' CV epidemics started 1 mth ago,
cf. FT's useful first graph)
The timeline of cases at https://www.ft.com/coronavirus-latest is also
illuminating.
Unfortunately, as is so often the case, a lot of the presentation
graphics (image) are better then the data analysis (content).
And, after getting the (moderately useless) 'cases' counts out of the
way, they also don't do any normalisation of death-counts against
population and normal death-rates.
For example, populations in countries that are less prone to
hysteria, such as Germanic northern Europe, evidence very low rates in
comparison with warm-blooded, Mediterranean countries.
I think this point is simply a national stereotype. Check out death rates in
say, Norway (lockdown) compared to Sweden (no lockdown). Or disastrous Britain
(minimal testing) - all northern countries. The Germans are doing something
very right, probably their massive levels of testing. The Vietnamese
(tropical) are also doing very well.
As a (still) Brit passport-holder, I wouldn't classify the UK as
Germanic (the royal family, minus the corgis, excepted, of course).
Poland 2, Norway 9, Germany 13, Austria 18, Denmark 21, Sweden 30 ...
... UK 43, Switzerland 62 (but Ticino?), Netherlands 78, Belgium 87 ...
... Greece 5, Portugal 20, France 83, Spain 221, Italy 230
I also plead my other qualifier: "**It may be** that a
'fear-of-the-virus' anxiety factor has exacerbated death rates ...".
And your point 4 is purely anecdotal. I'd be curious to see what country in
Europe doesn't have a lot of cross-border nationals working in health.
The key factor is the proportion of them who upped stakes and left.
My point about the hysteria factor was that in northern Italy there was
a very early and strong declaration about imminent cataclysm and
border-closing, whereas many other countries moved more steadily and
progressively.
(I've been impressed that the public health specialists were to the fore
early on in Australia, and spent a lot of time 'bringing the public with
them'. Since the pollies re-asserted their dominance, they've
occasionally become rambunctious. But even they have mostly kept within
bounds, and thereby achieved a reasonable level of compliance, and
avoided any serious public opposition such as demos in the streets,
heated arguments with policemen doing their jobs, riots, looting, and
suchlike forms of societal breakdown).
___________________
On Fri, Apr 03, 2020 at 10:01:35AM +1100, Roger Clarke wrote:
Ruminations on a Friday morning ...
The sports results and tables have been replaced by coronavirus (CV)
infection-counts and death-counts. And the media declares raw numbers,
without providing any context to them.
This morning's ABC News says that yesterday's 'CV{-linked}' death-toll was:
Italy 760
UK 559
Spain 800
To get some perspective, that needs moderation by two key variables: the
countries' poulations and their normal death-rates.
Death-rates are quoted as number per thousand of population p.a.
So Normal Deaths per Day = (Population/1000 * Death-Rate p.a.) / 365
I haven't been able to quickly locate indicators of the degree of
variability of deaths per day around the averages shown above, but there
could be wide variability. In particular, winter in some countries is
likely to have higher rates than less-cold times of year.
It's not possible with current information to relate CV-caused deaths to
normal death-rates. As a proxy measure, I've shown below the ratio of
deaths yesterday compared with average daily deaths, as a percentage:
Country Population Death-Rate Deaths per Day CV Deaths Y'day %age
Spain 46m 9.1 1146 800 69
Italy 60m 10.4 1709 760 44
UK 67m 9.4 1725 559 32
A number of potentially important factors muddy the water:
1. Generally, reports fail to distinguish:
a. deaths where CV appears to be the only significant factor
b. deaths where CV was a significant factor, although not the only one
c. deaths where CV may have been a factor (e.g. diagnosed with the
virus, but nature of death not consistent with CV-caused deaths)
d. deaths where CV was present but unlikely to have been a factor
The term 'excess deaths' or 'excess mortality' indicates a+b. In German,
the word is 'Ueberstirblichkeit', as per:
https://swprs.files.wordpress.com/2020/04/mortalitc3a4t-schweiz.png
This suggests that Switzerland is experiencing a 'normal' late-winter-flu
peak in deaths among over-65s.
It may be that there is a great deal of over-reporting due to the inclusion
of c. and d. in the numbers appearing in the media. Quoting
https://swprs.org/a-swiss-doctor-on-covid-19/, "[It may be that] all
test-positive deaths are assumed to be additional deaths".
2. It may be that a 'fear-of-the-virus' anxiety factor has exacerbated
death rates, and even resulted in deaths of individuals who are not
infected. For example, populations in countries that are less prone to
hysteria, such as Germanic northern Europe, evidence very low rates in
comparison with warm-blooded, Mediterranean countries.
3. A variety of reports suggest a very large proportion of deaths has been,
throughout, among those over 70 (90%), and a large proportion had prior
conditions that were life-threatening or could readily become
life-threatening (80%).
But, apart from a number of specific instances (Wuhan, Iran?, the upper-mid
Po Valley, parts of Spain, UK, US), it appears that even deaths among the
over-70s may be within the normal statistical range.
4. It appears that in both Italy and Spain, many hospitals and aged-care
facilities lost a large proportion of their staff, in many cases early in
the epidemic. That's because staff from Eastern European countries were
terrified by panic-ridden reporting and fled home, and large numbers of
local staff tested positive and were isolated at home. This may have
resulted in many saveable patients going untreated and becoming casualties
of the epidemic.
--
Roger Clarke mailto:[email protected]
T: +61 2 6288 6916 http://www.xamax.com.au http://www.rogerclarke.com
Xamax Consultancy Pty Ltd 78 Sidaway St, Chapman ACT 2611 AUSTRALIA
Visiting Professor in the Faculty of Law University of N.S.W.
Visiting Professor in Computer Science Australian National University
_______________________________________________
Link mailing list
[email protected]
http://mailman.anu.edu.au/mailman/listinfo/link
--
Roger Clarke mailto:[email protected]
T: +61 2 6288 6916 http://www.xamax.com.au http://www.rogerclarke.com
Xamax Consultancy Pty Ltd 78 Sidaway St, Chapman ACT 2611 AUSTRALIA
Visiting Professor in the Faculty of Law University of N.S.W.
Visiting Professor in Computer Science Australian National University
_______________________________________________
Link mailing list
[email protected]
http://mailman.anu.edu.au/mailman/listinfo/link
