There is a lot of hype that goes out with advent of a hurricane, but the media is not controlled by the government. I do not know of any government hype and think they did a pretty good job of forecasting the moving forces at work in this instance. I am not skilled enough at pool to call shots that accurately, so it is easy for me to understand why they cannot devine the exact place hurricanes can wander. But be sure if they do not tell you all they know, and loss results, the forecaster is on the hotseat.
I told many of my friends in a morning email that it was a little like a knuckleball in baseball, it can be hard to predict. We started out with some gusts in the 30s, but then just about 20% of the way into the left side of the storm, it took an increased right turn and we emerged the left side at the 10 oclock possition with winds dying to 6 knots. I have the two graphics of the wind layout we sent out with our email. My text analysis describing our experience follows: --oo0oo-- I wanted to update you on our experience preparing for Hurricane Earl and the resulting blow! Of course we are safe. If I were to make a baseball analogy I would compare Hurricane Earl to a Hoyt Willhelm knuckleball. As Brooks Robinson was reported saying: "He (Hoyt Wilhelm) had the best knuckleball you'd ever want to see. He knew where it was going when he threw it, but when he got two strikes on you, he'd break out one that even he didn't know where it was going." Hurricane Earl turned out to be something similar. It was aimed as a big curve so that we were going to get the outside corner of it, and a strong blow at the base of Cape Cod where we have anchored, but thanks to a high from the midwest, at the last minute it was pushed further outside and changed speeds. Sort of a Knuckleball Change-up from our vantage point. We took it and it was good for a walk. That's about as far as I can take that analogy. Seriously, we started getting rain in bands on Friday afternoon. Then after dark it started to blow out of the North East. Around midnight we were in it. The attached photo shows the wind patterns as we were just at the end of Buzzards Bay in Onset, MA on the base of Cape Cod... Earl was moving NE and we were in a band shown on the graphic as 40's winds. Had it stayed the same course it would have gotten into the 50s. But it had weakened from a Category 4 Thursday, down to a Category 1 as we waited for it aboard ANGEL LOUISE. At the last minute it broke right and we were spared any more wind. The Higher pressure from the midwest pushed it away from us. You can see that in the second picture. We slept in this morning. We will have a couple days of putting our boat home back together as we stripped everything and all canvas and sails and covers off Angel Louise in preparation for the earlier 140 mph winds that blew by the Carolinas as it was still aimed at us then. We have had wonderful sunshine and clear blue skies this Sat morning. We hope you have a perfect day too. They say that God protects Irishmen and Fools... Two out of two ain't bad! <Very Big Grin> next likely port Lake Tashamoo on Martha's Vineyard <snip ... graphic of wind range around storm around midnight) Earl when blowing at Onset around midnight Saturday early AM.. We are at the top of the first bay on the South (bottom side) at the base of Cape Cod, which sticks out like an arm with an upraised bicep. <snip... graphic of wind range around storm after it veered an extra 30deg or so to the right in early am) Hurricane Earl, reduced successively to Category 1, and then a Tropical Storm Took a sharp curve Right to move away! Earl leaving in peace - I fell asleep with the rain and blowing wind (reading in the 30s during gusts as we are in a protected harbor), but around 3:30 or so I woke up and it was quiet. I went out and saw it was relatively still with maybe 6 knots of wind from the NW. Ed Ed & Sue Kelly aboard USSV Angel Louise DC Based SKYPE Phone # (202) 657-6357 please leave message for us You can see map and travel progress at http://tinyurl.com/EdandSue On Sep 4, 2010, at 1:39 PM, Philip wrote: There must be some ground between "crying wolf" and being complacent. Those who sell the events of the day do not seem to have developed that ability - much to their shame. Philip On Sat, 2010-09-04 at 09:28 -0700, Hugh Barrass (hbarrass) wrote: > > Before you complain too loudly about "government employees" crying > wolf, > think about the consequences. > > I think it is hundreds of times more damaging if a hurricane hits > without sufficient warning or preparation than it is when warning is > given but the event is less serious than predicted. In all cases > meteorology deals with probabilities. "Government employees" must > determine how much preparation to make based on the probability of the > impending event. If the probability is only 25%, you might think that > they should all chill and let the dice roll - but would you bet your > family's life on a dice roll? -- S/V ORYOKI Currently lying in Beaufort NC "There's no point in making a plan if you're going to pretend to follow it!" _______________________________________________ Liveaboard mailing list [email protected] To adjust your membership settings over the web http://liveaboardonline.com/mailman/listinfo/liveaboard To subscribe send an email to [email protected] To unsubscribe send an email to [email protected] The archives are at http://www.liveaboardonline.com/pipermail/liveaboard/ To search the archives http://www.mail-archive.com/[email protected] The Mailman Users Guide can be found here http://www.gnu.org/software/mailman/mailman-member/index.html _______________________________________________ Liveaboard mailing list [email protected] To adjust your membership settings over the web http://liveaboardonline.com/mailman/listinfo/liveaboard To subscribe send an email to [email protected] To unsubscribe send an email to [email protected] The archives are at http://www.liveaboardonline.com/pipermail/liveaboard/ To search the archives http://www.mail-archive.com/[email protected] The Mailman Users Guide can be found here http://www.gnu.org/software/mailman/mailman-member/index.html
