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In a recent, well informed but to my mind unconvincing piece, Vijay Prashad argues that SCO should be put in charge of brokering a regional agreement. It seems that he believes that without the US occupation the ISI will itself wind down and tame the Taliban. Or perhaps he believes that once negotiations are completed under the aegis of the SCO--he does not explain why the US does not have the most influence to actually make the parties sit down together-- the Pakistani army can be trusted to reduce ISI support for Pakistan's proxies. At any rate, Prashad is very well informed and clearly understands the dangers of what is unfolding. At any rate here is part of what he recently wrote: India and Pakistan have competing interests in Afghanistan. Their Cold War is fought between their Afghan proxies. If the SCO were responsible for the situation, India and Pakistan would be forced to work together. India's sober reaction to the Mumbai attacks of 2008, and to the two bombings of its Kabul embassy have shown the Pakistani civilian leadership that it is prepared to negotiate in a serious fashion. On December 2, the Indian government announced, for the first time in decades, that it would begin to withdraw troops from Jammu and Kashmir. The moment is nigh for the Pakistani civilian leadership to put itself at the center of diplomatic discussions in the region, to isolate the ISI and the Pakistani military who have otherwise defined Pakistan's Afghan policy. But an escalation is going to set this backwards: more bloodshed in the northern borderlands of Pakistan will inflame the population, and it might set in motion a forward policy not only into Afghanistan but also its twin, Kashmir. If all this happens, I fear for the future of South Asia. In a decade it will resemble West Asia. Both broken by empire. ________________________________________________ Send list submissions to: [email protected] Set your options at: http://lists.econ.utah.edu/mailman/options/marxism/archive%40mail-archive.com
