On 14 Aug 2020 at 4:42, John Reimann wrote:
> 
> There is no such thing as "The Transitional Program by Leon
> Trotsky". He never wrote and never 
> would have written anything by that name.

You have written a lot of very interesting articles, John.  They are based on 
careful observation of what's happening. But when it comes to Trotskyist dogma, 
it changes. You go into spin control mode. It's ludicrous to try to free 
Trotskyism 
from the fiasco of the transitional program by claiming that it never existed, 
and is 
really just a method. It's word-chopping. 

You deny that Trotsky ever wrote anything with the title "The Transitional 
Program". Yes, that wasn't  the original title of the article, but it was 
immediately 
added by Trotsky's closest comrades and collaborators. More importantly, the 
article clearly elaborates Trotsky's idea of the transitional program.

I think you want to save Trotsky's concept of the transitional program from the 
multitide of wrong assessments in "The Transitional Program". So you only 
accept the "transitional method", and quietly jettison the gross blunders. But 
Trotsky's transitional method is the replacement of the minimum and maximum 
programs with the transitional program. That replacement is in itself wrong. A 
transitional program only makes sense in a transitional situation, where 
revolution 
is imminent. If it isn't, then eliminating the distinction between the minimum 
and 
maximum program is  a way of deluding oneself about how revolutionary certain 
reforms are, in and of themselves.

Moreover, anyone who reads "The Transitional Program: The Death Agony of 
Capitalism and the Tasks of the Fourth International" will see that the 
transitional 
program--or method if you prefer--is completely based on socialism being 
imminent everywhere, and the world being in what Trotsky called a "transitional 
epoch". Trotsky meant "death agony" very seriously. This was emphatically 
repeated in Trotsky's prediction two years later that World War II would bring 
either world socialism or world totalitarianism. (1) This prediction was very, 
very 
wrong. But one can't really separate the transitional method from it. This 
prediction strongly affects tactics.

This was seen in the Arab Spring. Most Trotskyist groups had a lot of trouble 
with 
their theorizing about it. The idea of the permanent revolution reinforced the 
idea 
of imminent socialism. Yet it was clear right from the the start that the 
uprisings of 
the Arab Spring, even if completely successful, wouldn't bring socialism or 
workers' regimes. Some Trotskyst groups would denounce various uprisings for 
that reason; others supported uprisings if they imagined that they were 
socialist; 
and then some dropped their support as soon as they realized that the uprisings 
weren't going to transition on to socialism. (2) 

Today we are in a period of crises. Should we therefore expect that now 
socialist 
revolution is imminent? This would give rise to the idea that the break-up of 
market fundamentalism will lead directly to a transitional situation and 
socialism, 
and that any major uprising will either go to socialism or collapse.  It's 
going to 
give rise to many mistakes on the part of the Trotskyist movement, just as it 
did 
with the Arab Spring. 

(1)  See the section "Either Socialism or Slavery" of the "Manifesto of the 
Fourth 
International on the Imperialist War and the Proletarian World Revolution", May 
1940 in Writings of Leon Trotsky (1939-1940), Pathfinder Press, 219-220.

(2)See, for exampl,e "Against Left-wing Doubts About the Democratic 
Movement", http://www.communistvoice.org/46cLeftWingDoubts.htm";, or other 
articles linked at  http://www.communistvoice.org/00ArabSpring.html.





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