I have always been skeptical about long wave theory --- the one piece I remember reading by Kondratieff himself used PRICE WAVES as indicators of long waves --- and both he and Schumpeter seemed to think "long waves" were endogenous like the "regular" business cycle ---
SSA theory argues that a set of institutions "works" for a while and then breaks on the "shoals" of its contradictions --- one could argue the 1970s in the US (and Britain?) was too much for the capitalist classes and they abandoned the previous SSA in favor of neo-liberalism -- Reaganism in the US, THatcherism in the UK --- In other words, there is nothing "natural" about moving to the "next Kondratieff" --- it's the result of political struggle --- The shattering of the liberal-left coalition that built the CIO during the 1930s and gave strong support for FDR's New Deal led the "liberal" wing to throw in its lot with the welfare-warfare state which left the labor movement too weak in the US to resist Reaganism --- In Britain, organized labor fought back and I don't know if the Labour Party was guilty of refusing to help or not ....but THatcherism prevailed there, too. Maybe (just maybe) --- the wildcat teachers' strikes, the new "rising of the women", the young people's SUNRISE movement can be a force that resists the fascistic SSA that some capitalists are trying to build (with or without Trump -- there are states already attempting that) --- we can hope (and be part of it if possible) On Thu, May 16, 2024 at 3:11 PM Mark Baugher via groups.io <mark= [email protected]> wrote: > > > I don't think so to the extent that a successful SSA is based on growth, > which I've found in some SSA literature such as > https://peri.umass.edu/images/publication/Stagnation-and-SSAs-Manuscript-Version-19-11.pdf. > I am not sure how that particular author thought of Long Waves, but Long > Waves seemed to inspire some of the originators of Structures of Social > Accumulation theory, > https://archive.org/details/segmentedworkdiv0000gord/page/n5/mode/2up, > which starts with "This book grew out of an urgent political concern about > persistent political and economic divisions among workers in the United > States. These divisions have helped frustrate widespread hopes for a much > broader and more dynamic progressive movement in this country. We argue in > this book that such disunity persists in large part as a result of > historically created objective divisions among workers in their production > experiences." > > I'm taking the Gordon, Edward, Reich work to be seminal, and they seem to > support Mandel's Long Wave conceptions while taking issue with him on the > role of institutions. It's relevant to this list that Trotsky took issue > with Kondratiev and the notion of Long Waves, and this led to an discussion > on the nature of exogenous events to a system, according to > https://newleftreview.org/issues/i99/articles/richard-b-day-the-theory-of-long-waves-kondratiev-trotsky-mandel.pdf > > thanks, Mark > > - > -=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=- Groups.io Links: You receive all messages sent to this group. View/Reply Online (#30350): https://groups.io/g/marxmail/message/30350 Mute This Topic: https://groups.io/mt/106071997/21656 -=-=- POSTING RULES & NOTES #1 YOU MUST clip all extraneous text when replying to a message. #2 This mail-list, like most, is publicly & permanently archived. #3 Subscribe and post under an alias if #2 is a concern. #4 Do not exceed five posts a day. -=-=- Group Owner: [email protected] Unsubscribe: https://groups.io/g/marxmail/leave/8674936/21656/1316126222/xyzzy [[email protected]] -=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-
