On 22 Jan 2025 at 8:12, sartesian via groups.io wrote:
> 
> RKOB has posted links to a number of articles claiming victories for
> the oppressed that 
> are enshrined in the rubble and debris of imperial adventures. Just
> another example of 
> what happens when ideology is more important than reality.
> _._,_._,_
> 
Actually, it's an example of the bankruptcy of the theory of permanent 
revolution. 
This theory is so irrelevant to the actual situation in Gaza that those who 
follow it 
are left with no coherent standard to judge what is going on. And so, even the 
current disaster can be proclaimed a victory.

Supposedly the theory of permanent revolution is the alternative to giving in 
to 
bourgeois or reactionary forces in the name of various democratic movements or 
the fight for the right to self-determination. It puts forward that unless the 
movement goes on to socialsm or a workers' state or a socialist federation of 
the 
entire MENA region, it will give rise to nothing. And yet here we see that it 
doesn't 
prevent some of its followers from hailing the devastation of Gaza as a great 
victory. 

During the Arab Spring, the theory of permanent revolution gave rise to various 
Trotskyist groups either imagining that the struggle in various countries would 
move on towards the establishment of workers' states, or, when they realized 
that 
it wouldn't do this, abandoning the movement or even denouncing it. (This is 
discussed in, for example, "Dreams of immediate socialist revolution" in the 
article 
"Against left-wing doubts about the democratic movement" (1)),  Thus the theory 
of permanent revolution provided no help in understanding what was going on in 
the Arab Spring. It led either to euphoria over the struggle at various 
moments, or 
to denigrating it.

Ditto for the Palestinian movement. Does the theory of permanent revolution 
give 
any realistic assessment about what is going on?

Not at all. The establishment of revolutionary workers' regimes or a socialist 
federation of the Middle East are not imminent. So to avoid denouncing the 
movement, one has to put aside "permanent revolution".for a time. But having 
done that, what standard is left for Trotskyists to judge what is going on? The 
vacuum in standards is such that one can even declare that the Gaza war is a 
victory for Hamas, and even do that before it's clear that the ceasefire will 
even 
hold.

(1) See https://www.communistvoice.org/46cLeftWingDoubts.html

-- Joseph Green



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