> I think in
> 5 years you might be looking at $20 instead of $100. Maybe at best. So
that
> will still make solid state unpracticed. (Even at $10 it is too high)
FLASH prices have (and will continue) to drop dramatically as production
quantities soar. Manufacturers have been perfecting multi-bits-per-gate
technology and sub-micron technology, which has (and will continue) to lead
to lower prices. And compression algorithms will continue to improve.
Eventually manufacturers will find it cheaper to make no-moving-parts solid
state memory rather than rotating media. You're right that it will take
some time, but it *will* come. However, minidisc will be the best medium
for the next several years.
> I don't see how you are going to get the original Mp3 file without a
computer
> being involved in the process some how.
MP3 hardware encoder chips *do* exist. Manufacturers have so far chosen not
to make stand-alone recorders, but it is technically possible. It doesn't
necessarily have to be MP3; it could be ATRAC3...
> One good spark and kiss your songs good buy with Flash memory. It could
happen.
I believe ESD protection is part of the Compact Flash and Smart Media
standards, so I don't see this as being a big problem. But, as I was
saying, due to the workings of the technology involved, the state changes
that record the data in FLASH memory are not as permanent (over a long time)
as those involved with minidisc. This is a basic limitation of FLASH
technology, but perhaps even that will change as the technology is
perfected.
Don't get me wrong; I believe that current minidisc units are miles ahead
of MP3 players. With a few changes (namely a USB MD interface and proper
software), MD recorders would be able to compete with MP3 players even in
terms of high-speed drag-and-drop downloads and uploads. Given the current
(and near term) state of FLASH technology, I'm not about to give up on MD
anytime soon, and I think Sony et al could silence many of the MP3
advocates/MD critics just by offering USB MD interface
(control/status/titling as well as bidirectional high-speed audio).
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