Doubts raised over Wimax's future

Story from BBC NEWS:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/go/pr/fr/-/1/hi/technology/4802908.stm

Published: 2006/03/14 09:11:26 GMT



A wireless technology known as Wimax could bring broadband to rural areas, 
says a report by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development.

The OECD report looked at the prospects for Wimax, a technology widely 
touted as one to beat both wi-fi and third-generation mobile networks.

But, says the report, regulatory, security and spectrum problems may limit 
the widespread use of Wimax.

Instead, Wimax may find niche uses such as in remote areas.


Faster net

Wimax (Worldwide Interoperability for Microwave Access) is a technology 
designed to give people high speed access to the net over relatively long 
distances.

A typical installation of a Wimax system could give users in an area three 
to 10 kilometres wide a 40 megabits per second (Mbps) connection to the net.

Said the report: "one cell could theoretically allow hundreds of business 
connections at 1.5 mbps and thousands of residential connections at 256 kbps".

Because of this ability to provide broadband speeds to a relatively large 
population of users, Wimax has been widely promoted as the "proper" 
replacement for wi-fi which offers higher speeds but typically only over a 
few tens of metres.

In particular, said the report, chip giant Intel described Wimax as a 
"disruptive" technology that has the potential to upset the business models 
of both mobile phone firms and traditional net suppliers.


Costly venture

However, the authors of the OECD report took a more cautious line and said 
there were numerous uncertainties that meant Wimax was not guaranteed a 
rosy future.

"Despite all the excitement over Wimax, the ultimate role of Wimax in the 
wireless market is debatable," it said.

The report cited the early promise of wireless local loop services in the 
late 1990s that were supposed to sound the death knell for traditional 
telephone operators.

High operating costs and technical problems forced the failure of most 
wireless local loop operators. The OECD pointed out that although the Wimax 
Forum, which oversees standards for the technology, is maintaining tight 
specifications to keep a cap on costs there were other issues that could 
still dent its success.

Setting up a nationwide Wimax network in the US was likely to cost in 
excess of $3 billion (£1.74 billion), said the report.

"Third-generation mobile operators have incurred great expense to roll out 
new networks and the prospect of starting again with a new Wimax network is 
not appealing," wrote the authors.

By contrast, it said, mobile operators were more likely to upgrade their 
existing networks with technologies such as High Speed Downlink Packet Access.

The report also stressed that Wimax should not be seen as a replacement for 
wi-fi which does a good job of giving high speed access in tight locations. 
The two technologies were likely to be complementary, said the report with 
Wimax used to link islands of wi-fi together.

Alternatively, Wimax may find a role as a service that can reach rural and 
remote areas where it is too expensive to run cables or upgrade exchanges 
to support broadband.

The OECD report pointed out that access to the radio spectrum Wimax uses is 
not universal across all nations and some parts of the spectrum it seeks to 
use are reserved in some countries or place restrictions on how they can be 
used.

Also some countries have run or are considering auctions for the spectrum 
that Wimax is supposed to use.

There were also issues to confront on security and on how Wimax networks 
should be managed to ensure that rivals do not try to prioritise their 
traffic over others.


================================
George Antunes, Political Science Dept
University of Houston; Houston, TX 77204
Voice: 713-743-3923  Fax: 713-743-3927
antunes at uh dot edu



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