Yes it's too early to say whether any vaccine will be forthcoming and if it does come, what sort of durable immunity it will provide. Those studies take years typically. Not sure anyone is going to want to take a vaccine if it may not provide more than a few months' immunity.
Thankfully SARS and MERS were known to generate immunity lasting years. So the most closely related viruses to this one seem at least to have the possibility of lasting immunity. Infection with seasonal coronaviruses on the other hand does not provide any durable immunity and it is possible to become infected with the same virus type multiple times within a single cold season. This is why some people are saying covid-19 may not generate a durable immune response. But in Italy and other countries, reinfections seem very rare if not altogether absent. Some people shed viral RNA for a long time, but that does not mean they become sick again or were reinfected. It is possible to control, but it would take a massive effort that would likely require national leadership of a type that has not been forthcoming. Public Health police powers are very broad. Health departments or the CDC could easily request location data from google and apple and they would be legally compelled to provide it under existing law. But the mandate for CDC to begin an all out war on the virus through test and trace has not been given to them. States like CA and NY are training armies of contact tracers and amping up testing ability, so we may see some aggressive local and state efforts to bring this thing to heel in areas where it has killed a lot of people. I spoke with a Dr. buddy in Sweden today. He said their medical community is a bit split on whether they have done enough to combat the virus. But practically speaking they have all been isolating for a couple of months and their kids have been out of school for similar periods of time. So even though they had not mandatory shut down, they had pretty high levels of civic self-isolation. They have more deaths than surrounding countries, but less than we do, or Spain or some other European countries. It will be interesting to see what happens with loosening. We have seen a bit of an uptick over the past few days where I work. Practically speaking, I actually think there is pretty good anecdotal evidence from 1918 that the cities where aggressive control measures were taken earliest had the most rapid and complete economic recoveries. So I think it is in everyone's best interest for the Feds to lead a gumshoe epidemiology effort to squash this thing. The virus may have to kill a lot more people to generate enough political support across the board for such an effort, but I actually see this more as a virus vs human thing, rather than a blue vs red thing. The virus will always be the best advocate for its own control. If someone has to convince someone else it is bad, then it must not be that bad - yet. It would be great if it just never got that bad in less urban areas, but rural America skews very old in terms of demographics and it may just grind along at a slower rate in those areas than it did on the subway in NYC. We still don't know why NYC was harder hit than CA, but public transit and perhaps more importation of infected people along with some earlier lockdown measures out west may account for the difference. I think 15% of the world's coronavirus deaths have now happened in and around NYC including NJ, CT etc. On Fri, May 15, 2020 at 6:09 PM OK Don via Mercedes <mercedes@okiebenz.com> wrote: > From what I understand (which isn't much), Covid-19 is in the same virus > family as the common cold, while the flu is an influenza virus - a totally > different family. No one has been able to develop a vaccine for the cold, > but we do have marginally effective vaccines for the flu. > If my assumptions are correct, expecting a vaccine for Covid-19 to be > effective is an exercise in wishful thinking that will lead no where. > > I think that Karl is correct in that if we contain this virus via > isolation so it can't spread beyond those it has infected already, we can > stop it in it's tracks and all of us don't have to get it. > However, given that a lot of Americans don't trust and won't listen to > those who know about this stuff, from the President on down, there is no > hope of stopping it. We will all get it, many of us will be very sick and > permanently debilitated by it, and too many will die from it. That having > been said, the planet is over populated ... > > On Fri, May 15, 2020 at 7:50 PM Curt Raymond via Mercedes < > mercedes@okiebenz.com> wrote: > > > Karl, > > Does anybody honestly believe the numbers coming out of China? I find > them > > so low as to be a joke... > > I'm with Rick, we're all going to get this eventually, it's essentially a > > new, much worse, flu. Get used to the idea now. This who are waiting for > a > > vaccine ignore the fact that the record for a vaccine release is 4 years. > > Curt > > > > Sent from Yahoo Mail on Android > > > > On Fri, May 15, 2020 at 7:52 PM, Karl Wittnebel via Mercedes< > > mercedes@okiebenz.com> wrote: Rick I won't tell either of them that > you > > said they were fat or unhealthy > > :-) Picture very fit, active, healthy moms in their 40s and you will have > > the idea. > > > > My point is exactly that: many people (including me) want to minimize > this > > thing by thinking that all the people getting sick are somehow not like > > them, but this is not the case. Statistically sure most young healthy > > people are not going to die from it. But it still makes normal, otherwise > > healthy, middle age people very sick in a way that influenza does not, > over > > a much longer interval measured in weeks rather than days. I am talking > > about not being able to speak in full sentences for weeks, being short of > > breath talking on the phone. Having pain in your lungs when you breathe. > > For weeks. > > > > I think the flu comparison article I posted speaks to this. Covid deaths > > this year are multiples of influenza deaths even in a bad year. > > > > Exercise is always good, as is eating right, not smoking and not being > fat. > > > > I am not trying to alarm anyone, or advocate for any particular response, > > other than to rank it higher on the list of threats in your thinking than > > the flu, take appropriate precautions, etc. Saying we are all going to > get > > it is rather defeatist when it is clearly possible to suppress to > virtually > > zero e.g. Taiwan, Hong Kong, China, Singapore, S. Korea. I dont think any > > of us want to give it to our parents or elderly friends. Wash hands, > wear a > > mask if you are close to vulnerable people for more than 30 minutes in a > > poorly ventilated space, these are sensible precautions that don't cost > > much. Maybe we will start to track it better so we dont end up shutting > the > > whole economy down. > > > > Ok maybe I was silly to bring it up, especially for Euan in New Zealand > > where they dont even have any of this disease. > > > > Maybe the meth jokes arent so bad after all. > > > > As you were. > > > > On Fri, May 15, 2020, 2:28 PM Rick Knoble via Mercedes < > > mercedes@okiebenz.com> wrote: > > > > > Karl inquires: > > > > > > >How many people do you know who have died of the flu? > > > > > > With or of? A few over the years with, none of. > > > I do have know someone who was very close to death from H1N1 in 2009. > > > From, not with. She is still not 100% a decade later. That is/was a > VERY > > > nasty virus that directly killed a lot of otherwise healthy people. > > > > > > >The mom of my 3rd grader's classmate has been in >the hospital for > about > > > 6 weeks and a colleague of >mine at the hospital was out of work for 5 > > > weeks >and still cant breathe well when she lies flat. 40yo RN > > > > > > Estimated BMI over 30? Other comorbidities? > > > > > > Sorry folks, if you are fat, out of shape, or have other health issues, > > > address what you can. The curve has been flattened, but the area under > > the > > > curve has not. Meaning whoever was going to get this virus is still > going > > > to get it, just later this year or next. Meaning we will have to fight > > off > > > not only Covid 19, but influenza a or influenza b, AND Covid 19 > > > concomitantly. So, with that said, > > > > > > 1. If you smoke, quit. Now. I watched my mom and my brother pass from > > lung > > > cancer. I suspect death from this is similar. > > > 2. If you have a BMI over 30, lose fat. Now. Diet is key. Stop putting > > > garbage in your pie hole. > > > 3. If you can tolerate hard aerobic exercise, do it every day. > (Increase > > > your VO2 max) This is a pulmonary disease. Increasing pulmonary > function > > > can only help. > > > 4. Build some muscle. If you end up in the hospital for an extended > > > period, more muscle mass will help. > > > 5. Get some sunshine. Vitamin D is good for you. > > > > > > That's all I can think of off the top of my head. > > > Obviously I am not a doctor, just an uneducated rube, and if this > advice > > > is offensive, so be it. If it is bad advise, please post credible links > > > disproving it. > > > > > > Rick > > > > > > > > > _______________________________________ > > > http://www.okiebenz.com > > > > > > To search list archives http://www.okiebenz.com/archive/ > > > > > > To Unsubscribe or change delivery options go to: > > > http://mail.okiebenz.com/mailman/listinfo/mercedes_okiebenz.com > > > > > > > > _______________________________________ > > http://www.okiebenz.com > > > > To search list archives http://www.okiebenz.com/archive/ > > > > To Unsubscribe or change delivery options go to: > > http://mail.okiebenz.com/mailman/listinfo/mercedes_okiebenz.com > > > > > > _______________________________________ > > http://www.okiebenz.com > > > > To search list archives http://www.okiebenz.com/archive/ > > > > To Unsubscribe or change delivery options go to: > > http://mail.okiebenz.com/mailman/listinfo/mercedes_okiebenz.com > > > > > > -- > OK Don > > "Whenever you find yourself on the side of the majority, it is time to > pause and reflect." Mark Twain > > “Basic research is what I’m doing when I don’t know what I am doing.” > Wernher > Von Braun > 2013 F150, 18 mpg > 2017 Subaru Legacy, 30 mpg > 1957 C182A, 12 mpg - but at 150 mph! > _______________________________________ > http://www.okiebenz.com > > To search list archives http://www.okiebenz.com/archive/ > > To Unsubscribe or change delivery options go to: > http://mail.okiebenz.com/mailman/listinfo/mercedes_okiebenz.com > > _______________________________________ http://www.okiebenz.com To search list archives http://www.okiebenz.com/archive/ To Unsubscribe or change delivery options go to: http://mail.okiebenz.com/mailman/listinfo/mercedes_okiebenz.com
