>From New Scientist this week: "EMISSIONS are still way too high to stop dangerous climate change, warns a new report from the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP).
To stop the Earth warming more than 2 °C above preindustrial levels, global emissions must peak at 44 gigatonnes in 2020 and then fall. However, the report says that 2020 emissions are likely to be between 8 to 13 gigatonnes higher. This range is calculated on how well or not countries deliver on their pledges to cut emissions. So in the best- case scenario, where everyone meets their targets, emissions are still 8 Gt too high. This "emissions gap" has grown: first estimates by UNEP in 2010 put it at between 5 and 9 Gt. Unless drastic action is taken soon, we are likely to see a 4 °C rise this century, warns Simon Anderson at the International Institute for Environment and Development in Edinburgh, UK. A report from the World Bank, also published this week, paints a stark picture of a 4 °C warmer world riven by severe heatwaves, floods and droughts. "It will be absolutely catastrophic for certain parts of the world," Anderson says. By delaying emissions cuts, the world is simply deciding to pay more for them later, he says." I remain to be convinced of the carbon dioxide argument. Of more concern are reports such as those on the speed with which the former lush territory now the Sahara Desert changed - possibly only decades and certainly only a few hundred years. Climate change is obviously part of earth history The question is why we are so unprepared. --
