Rick,
"Otherwise, we ourselves will be an INTREGAL PART of turning Movie
Poster Collecting EVEN ON IT'S HIGHEST LEVEL into a BUYER's MARKET. If
the day comes when you can buy an authentic, original CASABLANCA US
1-Sheet for $7500 or an original FRANKENSTEIN US 1-Sheet for
$75,000, our hobby will truly be in desperate straits."
Spoken like a true seller. I think there are a whole lot of collectors
out there who would totally disagree that a "buyer's market" in movie
posters would be a bad thing.
For starters, any such "fear deflation" would not spread to the whole
business, not without very good reason (like a bunch of convincing fakes
turning up in the $4,000 to $8,000 range). It would start at the very
top, where prices are already absurd even compared to 10 years ago and
now limited to purchase by the very wealthy. I don't consider that
situation "good for the hobby" at all. Quite the opposite: Look at what
happened to comic book collecting when that happened. But anyway, it
would be the very high end that was most affected by Fear and Loathing
in Posterville and I'm not going to weep for speculators if the posters
they paid too much for is suddenly worth a bit less than they were 4
years ago. They have to take their lumps in the speculative marketplace
just like they do in the stock market or the real estate market. As for
genuine collectors who have owned their rare Universal Horror Stuff for
a decade or more... well, they paid a lot less for those posters than
current prices so if the market price drops some they are still ahead of
the game.
Now if convincing fakes are discovered in the under-$10,000 range then,
yes, there would be some deflation there as well, but there should be if
such convincing fakes are discovered. Why should buyers continue to
spend large sums of money without some believable assurance that they
aren't being had -- either knowingly or unknowingly by the seller?
The selling and restoration communities (who are the "industry" part of
this hobby-industry) are now going to circle the wagons and try to
convince all of us circling buyer-Indians that there is no real cause
for alarm and that we should all continue to go on paying
ever-increasing prices for the desirable pieces year after year.
Phooey. As sellers were so fond of saying during the Big Price Run Up,
"it's the market that sets the price". OK, so let's go with that -- or
is does that maxim only apply when the market is constantly rising?
If Greed is Good, then logically Deflation is Good as well -- because it
allows people to indulge their greed by getting more for their money.
I think it is very inaccurate to describe concerned collectors who are
trying to get to the bottom of this problem -- and then actually *do
something* about it (which never was done in the past when fakes were
discovered) -- as people pouring gasoline on the flames. Knowledge is
not gasoline and Truth is not flames.
-- JR
rixpost...@aol.com wrote:
I think that any collector or dealing who's looking to buy or bid on a
high-end poster or lobby card should be CAUTIOUSLY CONCERNED before
proceeding with his possible acquisition, but I can see the lever of
PARANOIA and FEAR reaching some kind of a fever pitch soon...and I
this 99% of it is UNWARRANTED.
This Universal Horror forgery situation was like the PERFECT
STORM...you bring together one collector fairly new to the hobby
(since 2001, I think the article said). who allegedly joins forces
with one of the most brilliant restorers in the hobby---the specter of
GREED enters into the equation and...PRESTO...a few months or a couple
years later you have a two million dollar forgery plan that ultimately
FAILED. But in order for it to ever happen, the linchpin in this
whole scenario (or any scenario like it) is THE RESTORER.
The fact of the matter is that there are VERY FEW restorers out there
who can do the INCREDIBLE things that our Alleged Universal Horror
Forgery Restorer can do.
Hey, these guys have been virtually PAINTING IN GREAT BIG MISSING
PIECES of movie posters for 15 years or more...this practice is
NOTHING NEW. On the other hand, creating an ENTIRE poster
IS something new. But I don't think there are THAT MANY RESORERS out
there who are CAPABLE of pulling something like this off.
Sure, I think we should have some entity in the hobby who examines
high end pieces and certifies that they're authentic. But with all
this FEAR and PARANOIA out there, if I had the funds available, I'd
have my sights on that CREATURE 1-Sheet that's presently only at
$3300. Hell, the way I see it this is the PERFECT TIME for some 50's
Sci-Fi collector out there to get an original Creature From The Black
Lagoon
US 1-Sheet for, who knows...maybe UNDER $10,000!!
I think we as seasoned collectors and dealers have a
RESPONSIBILITY not to EMPTY A CAN OF GASOLINE on the gathering flames
of FEAR and PARANOIA. Otherwise, we ourselves will be an INTREGAL
PART of turning Movie Poster Collecting EVEN ON IT'S HIGHEST LEVEL
into a BUYER's MARKET. If the day comes when you can buy an
authentic, original CASABLANCA US 1-Sheet for $7500 or an original
FRANKENSTEIN US 1-Sheet for $75,000, our hobby will truly be in
desperate straits.
This kind of Buyer's Market, might be "good" for the Collector, but
it's definitely BAD FOR THE HOBBY and the HOBBY'S FUTURE. I think
whether it's GLENN BECK or a member poster on MoPo---spewing out
utterances of FEAR and PARANOIA are an effective way to make people
TOTALLY SCARED SHITLESS
when maybe they should be CAUTIOUS + CONCERNED---wanting to EXAMINE
ALL OF THE FACTS instead of frantically clutching on to the terrifying
SOUND BITES. Hey, I thin we SHOULD be concerned about what's going
on...VERY CONCERNED. But I also think that if I had a few extra
bucks, I'd email the seller who has the CREATURE 1Sheet up
on eBay...ask some questions, perform as thorough investigation as I
could---and WIN THAT $20,000 one sheet for 1/2 WHAT IT'S WORTH!
The point I'm trying to make is that we need to be a part of the
SOLUTION, not a part of the PROBLEM.
If we all join in and take the TERROR LEVEL up to RED when maybe it
should be on YELLOW---we're consciously or unconsciously throwing
fuel on the fire that eventually could lead to "THE DESTRUCTION OF OUR
HOBBY"....
Rick Ryan
Visit the MoPo Mailing List Web Site at www.filmfan.com
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