Hi Mark --
I've been following this and thought I'd jump in since
the chances of my not doing so decreased with time.
Didn't you jump in because the chances of your NOT doing so INCREASED with
time? (Anyway, that's why I decided to jump in.)
Chance can be a useful concept to describe how one sees
the universe. The issue when discussing it, is that you
can't point to it. Where does chance reside, is it under a
rock someplace? In the same way, where does chance
begin and where does it end? If we can predict, does that
mean that chance is not involved? Is it a matter of how
well we can predict? The chances of us dying are pretty
high based on statistics, does that mean that chance
is taken out of that situation?
Chance is what we call any event that we cannot predict with empirical
evidence. Thus, combustion, pregnancy, measles, ganguarine, genetic
predisposition, heavier-than-air flight, ocean tides, and solar eclipses
were all
"chance events" at one time in human history.
The chances of a coin toss landing heads or tails can
be calculated, but to do so requires the tosser to not
have influence on its toss. That removal of the
observer from the situation is impossible. Quantum
mechanics would say that by observing something
we influence it, so chance is taken out of everything
we observe. If I toss a coin, where does chance
come in?
You can say that the chance of a coin landing on its head is one in two, but
you can't predict the result of a particular toss. So chance is still
involved. The question of how much the observer affects the outcome of an
event (Bohr's Complimentarily) is an intriguing one for philosophy.
I like to think there are some things we can learn to control or predict as
cognizant beings. Such events become part of our human culture. Other
things are beyond our power to master, and these events represent the
"otherness" of our existence. They serve to remind us that value-experience
and intellect are not entirely subjective, but are influenced by a cosmic
order that transcends subjectivity. The nature of this order is not
localized and sequential as experience represents it, but absolute and
unconditional as the transcendent source must be.
In my opinion, chance exists in every moment of
everything, or it does not exist at all. I prefer the
former. So where does free will come in? The free
will comes in on how we view the situation, what our
attitude is as observer. It is that area of free will
which then drives the direction of the experience
of Chance.
How we view a situation and our attitude about it is a measure of our
value-sensibility. The "free will" comes in when we make valuistic choices
that affect our being-in-the-world. These have to do with how we respond to
existential events, such as life's tragedies, health problems, human
relations, career opportunities, moral decisions, philosophical choices, and
leaving the world a better (or worse) place than we found it. In all of
these endeavors we overrule chance as the choice-makers of our reality.
Essentially speaking,
Ham
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