In my opinion, Taleb makes way too many assumptions that lead to false 
conclusions.  His hindsight logic only proves that he can only look backwards.  
I can make any number of statements that way.  That big changes are 
unpredictable needs to be proven through experimentation, not through history 
lessons.

Mark

On Oct 3, 2011, at 12:15 PM, MarshaV <[email protected]> wrote:

> 
> So cool is Taleb!!!   His book should be required reading for one and all...  
>  
> 
> 
> On Oct 3, 2011, at 3:10 PM, Steven Peterson wrote:
> 
>> Taleb would remind us that "All swans are white" was as well confirmed
>> as any theory in history until the first black one was found.
>> 
>> 
>> 
>> 
>> On Mon, Oct 3, 2011 at 3:06 PM, MarshaV <[email protected]> wrote:
>>> 
>>> Greeting,
>>> 
>>> 
>>> One more time I hear "Quantum Mechanics is the best confirmed physical 
>>> theory in history."    Oh really?    Ahhh, will it have an impact on Roger 
>>> Penrose's Quantum Consciousness?
>>> 
>>> Anyway, I just ordered at two-volume dvd set with David Chalmers the major 
>>> Contributor.  Here's the trailer for anybody interested:
>>> 
>>> 
>>> http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TBo3h3-WrLM
> 
> 
> ___
> 
> 
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