Vic's number are fascinating! Thanks! (But please detach that vCard
attachment in the future - members are understandably nervous about
those because attachments can more easily carry viruses. Better to send
in plain-text format if you can.)

A few things jump out:

1. While the usual two wards thought of as "minority-opportunity wards"
have majority-minority voting-age populations (5, 8), Ward 6 joins them
- surpassing 8 in minority population. Fully five of the city's 13 ward
have majority-minority total populations (3, 4, 5, 6, 8). ...And only
one minority councilmember was elected in 2001, in the closest race in
the city.

2. Of the 2 wards that by far gained the most population, one is not the
above categories (Ward 2), and one is (Ward 6, which also leaped to
number-two in minority population).

3. Among the population losers: I can understand why Ward 5 was alone
among majority-minority wards...the destruction of Sumner-Olson while
Heritage Park remains to be built. However, Ward 11 stands alone as a
double-digit population loser...what happened there?

4. Ward 2 is now 26% bigger than Ward 11; that's the spread between most
populous and least. My stat degree does not give me any insight into
Voting Rights standards, but 5 of 13 wards are more than one standard
deviation from the average ward population: 1, 2, 6, 11 and 12. That's
two big gainers and three big losers; the gainers have 34 percent and 64
percent minority population , and the losers having 21, 15 and 17
percent.

So the 64,000-vote question to list experts: is that enough of a gap to
win a Voting Rights lawsuit and force 2003 city elections using
districts re-drawn to the 2000 census?

Thanks again, Vic, for the number-crunching!

[numbers snipped for brevity; see Vic's post]

David Brauer
King Field - Ward 10
Stat geek




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