-----Original Message-----
From:  Jordan S. Kushner

Is anyone aware of a state legislative candidate buying TV commercials,
and during such an expensive time?  Does anyone know if Roche is
spending his own money, or where the donations are coming from?  Is
there any concern about him trying to buy the election?

[TB]  It's rare for a legislative candidate to buy TV time other than
on cable.  IF he had accepted public financing he would be limited to
spending about $70,000 for both the primary and general election.  He
(Roche) hasn't accepted public financing which means that he can spend
whatever he wants, donate/loan as much as he wants to his own campaign
but those that donate to his campaign are not eligible for the MN
Political Contribution Refund program.

There are at least 2 separate TV commercials.  I've seen one on
stadiums, one on education.  They aren't cheap to produce, then you
need to pay to run them.  Well maybe it at least gives us a break from
Wellstone vs. Coleman.

Spending his own money?  I haven't looked at his finance reports.  His
economic interest disclosure has a rather lengthy list of stocks held. 
Unfortunately it doesn't tell you if its 1 share of each company or 1
million shares.  It would probably be fair to say that he isn't
suffering in poverty.



David Brauer wrote:
> 
> While I don't have the piece nearby, so I can't quote from it, Roche
> basically hammers Dibble for supporting stadiums in the legislature
> while opposing them as a candidate. Among the many charges, the one I
> remember most clearly involves what Roche calls the "Dibble
amendment,"
> which tacked $45 million onto a $330 million stadium bill.
> 
> My suspicion - and it is only a guess - is that Dibble was trying to
> tack on $$ for affordable housing or some other lefty DFL priority as
> way to sink the bill by making it too expensive, or at least assure
if
> it passed that something "good" would be in it.
> 
> I'm hoping someone can post more details on Roche's charges (I'll ask
my
> wife what she did with the flier in the a.m.).

[TB]  I went and read the House Journal referenced in the Roche letter
(if anyone cares its at:
http://www.house.leg.state.mn.us/cco/journals/2001-02/j0325090.pdf ) 
As context, reading the prior pages reveals that the amendment is
included in a long list of amendments that certainly wouldn't be
considered favorable to the bill.  Incidentally the next amendment
offered would have moved the required local special election to the day
of the November general election when presumably more people would be
voting.  

It should also be noted that Scott Dibble voted against the stadium
bill that day.  I think the Roche letter omitted that little fact.


David Brauer:
> I'd especially like to hear the Dibble campaign's response. I'm sure
> they hate responding to an attack, but I'm sure this piece was sent
> widely, and just six days before the primary.

[TB]  I would expect a response.  But, what comes next?  

The piece I got in the mail yesterday came "Pre-sorted First Class
Mail".  I think it was mailed using the voter registration file (yes,
that is legal) because the mailing label had my full first middle and
last name in all caps.  The voter registration file is one of the few
places you will find my full middle name.

 I'm not sure what the pre-sort discount is off the regular 37 cent
rate but I'm guessing that it cost about 33 cents each to mail these. 
In 2000 there were 57,000 registered voters including the 11,000 who
registered election day in the old Senate District 60, the new Senate
District 60 is slightly larger.  There were approximately 35,000
households in the old SD60, slightly more in the new that would be
mailed to if the mailing was limited to one piece per address.  The
postage bill alone on this little mailing was probably about $12,000. 
Then you pay to print and address 35,000 or more pieces, even at a dime
a piece (envelope and 2 pages printed both sides) its over $15,000 for
the mailing.

So the response?  If Scott has the money to do it (which he likely
does) it is still logistically difficult.  The response needs to be
drafted, printed, then taken to a mailing house (to many pieces to do
with volunteers) that can work it into their schedule (not always easy)
in time for people to get it before they vote on Tuesday.

Roche clearly knows exactly what he is doing.  He was at one time a
member of the Massachusetts Legislature, he is not a neophyte.  I'm a
little surprised that he didn't have an ad in today's Strib Variety
section which is zoned with a zone that covers the district rather
well, its also reasonably cheap.  

I expect that he already has the printer and mailing house lined up for
one, likely two, more mailings.  With the larger number of apartments
in this district it is difficult to lit drop a significant number of
the voters.  Money seems to be available here.  I think Ted Mondale
holds the record for the amount spent on a MN legislative race when he
borrowed his father's fund raising rolodex, a new record here?


Patrick Peterson wrote:

     Wow -- That's a spectacular waste of money.  When I ran for school
board we floated the idea of bus signs, but it was sidelined because
with the money it would have cost we could have done several more
targeted (and useful) mailings or phonings.  This is
exponentially MORE wasteful.

[TB]  I disagree on the wastefulness of bus signs.  They are excellent
for name recognition and there are good bus routes thru this district. 
Seems as the front of the bus is about $100/month plus the cost of
printing the signs.  For the cost of this mailing he'd be on a whole
bunch of busses, you couldn't miss him.  As for targeting mailings and
phoning, you need to have IDed voters to do that.  I doubt that there
has been much IDing going on from someone who does not have any
political party support.


[TB concludes]  If a person wants to try to buy an election, this is
probably a good one to try to buy.  Its technically an open seat and
Scott has only been a member of the House for 2 years so he hasn't
developed the name recognition and reputation as someone who has been
there for lets say 10 years has.  

Has the Dibble campaign been lazy?  I've seen a few lawn signs.  I have
not seen any lit pieces, direct mail pieces or advertising (albeit I
was out of the country for 3 weeks of August and could have missed it).
 They certainly knew the biggest challenge was the primary.  They
should have known that big spending was at least a possibility when
Roche did not file for public financing.

If you need to get your name in front of the voters 7 times to win an
election, Roche may be able to do it.  I've seen 2 television ads, an
ad in Skyway News and a direct mail piece in the past few days, that's
4 times.  I expect to see more, I'd be surprised if the television ads
stop, I expect more direct mail, I expect more print ads.

It could be an interesting next 5 days, certainly more interesting than
Wellstone vs. Coleman.  Almost makes on want to vote in the DFL
primary.


Terrell




Terrell Brown
Loring Park
terrell at terrellbrown dot org

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