On Thursday, May 26, 2005, at 06:00 AM, Jeanne Massey wrote:
According to state forecasts, the fastest population growth will be
among
people aged 50 to 64 through 2010. By 2015, this age group begins to
decline
rapidly as the retirement of the baby-boom generation gets underway.
Boomers range from the birth years of 1946 to 1965 - 19 years (based on
high birth rates that did not fall until 1965.) They may have produced
children from about 1967 to 1986 (and later due to delayed pregnancies).
Those children would now be teens to 38 years old. Gen Xers, the oldest
of the group, are mature workers and homeowners. They are just a very
small group and so they don't make much of an impact.
By the 2020s, baby boomleters (kids of baby boomers) will be having
kids and
likely buying homes in big numbers (though not as big as in their
parents'
generation), filling in some (but not likely all) those homes built for
their parents' generation.
Agree the bigger group is the younger offspring of boomers and gen
Xers. In my opinion, the biggest factor for these youngsters (and their
future children) is the massive debt we are acquiring nationally and to
a lesser extent in the state through the Pawlenty policies. Unlike the
World War II group that passed wealth to their children, the boomers
will pass debt to their children and grandchildren. And unlike World
War II which produced a post-war national surplus (1948), the Iraq war
and all the other little wars the U.S. is engaged in, is costing us - a
lot. That seems to me to be the biggest difference.
(If post-Iraq there is a surplus, it will have to come from our debt
status of $7.7 trillion including (budget office forecast) a deficit of
$400 billion this year.
And it isn't just government that is acquiring massive debt, consumer
debt is gigantic. That doesn't leave much wiggle room to exercise home
ownership options for those coming to maturity in the 2020s.
So the traditional investment in a home for later income will either
become more out of reach as effect of the debt is passed along
throughout the population, or the option of using home ownership will
be less favored over other means of gaining wealth.
However, that is not currently the case. According to FDIC, "Currently,
mortgages comprise 73.2 percent of total household debt, versus just
under 69 percent as recently as 2000. Of the $3 trillion in additional
consumer debt accumulated in the past four years through mid-2004, more
than 80 percent was mortgage-related."
And, there is the issue of homeowners liquidating their home equity to
gain cash for various reasons. More debt.
Best wishes,
Laura
Laura Waterman Wittstock
Candidate for Minneapolis Library Board of Trustees
DFL and Labor endorsed
Minneapolis, MN
612-387-4915
www.laurawatermanwittstock.com
http://laurawatermanwittstock.blogspot.com/
Wittstock for Library Committee
913 19th Avenue SE, Mpls, 55414
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