Hello Minneapolis Folks,
The numbers have stayed about the same since the primary. The key will be
turn-out, and in the end who decides to stay home. It was interesting that the
poll found that Rybak leads with Democrats and McLaughlin with Republicans. The
numbers are still pretty close and neither candidate should be declaring
victory or defeat. These are not Kelly/Coleman numbers.
Ken Bradley
Kenny Neighborhood
Poll: Rybak is ahead of McLaughlinThe mayor leads by the same margin as his
primary win, but the poll also found that one in five voters is undecided.
Minneapolis Mayor R.T. Rybak leads Hennepin County Commissioner Peter
McLaughlin by the same margin he won the primary election, although one in five
likely voters remains undecided, according to a poll released late Sunday.
According to the University of Minnesota poll, 44 percent of likely voters said
they would vote for Rybak while 35 percent would vote for McLaughlin. The two
DFLers face off in the Nov. 8 election.
"The race is more open than I thought. A fifth of the voters haven't made up
their mind. Usually that's because they have doubts about the incumbent," said
Larry Jacobs, director of the Humphrey Institute's Center for the Study of
Politics and Governance at the university.
Rybak expressed satisfaction with the poll while McLaughlin said he hadn't seen
it, but knew enough about it to dismiss it.
McLaughlin said the sample of 371 likely voters was too small, in his judgment,
to provide meaningful results.
Jacobs, who oversaw the poll, defended it as "very high quality."
The poll mirrored the results of the Sept. 13 primary when the mayor outpolled
McLaughlin 44 percent to 35 percent.
Jacobs said Rybak has an advantage "grounded in the good feelings about
conditions in Minneapolis."
Of those polled, 58 percent said the city is headed in the "right direction"
while 42 percent said it was on the "wrong track."
"I'm pleased the majority of residents think the city is headed in the right
direction and the majority think I am doing the right job," Rybak said.
Fifty-six percent of those polled said they approved of how Rybak has handled
his job while 36 percent disapproved and 8 percent didn't know. Those numbers
held relatively steady across the subjects of economic development, race
relations and housing.
The mayor's approval dropped to 50 percent for how he has handled crime with
his highest disapproval -- 43 percent -- on that subject.
Rybak said the crime result was gratifying because of how heavily his opponent
has attacked him on the issue. In a debate Sunday night on KSTP-TV, Channel 5,
the two sparred again, often over public safety.
McLaughlin said the mayor had failed to protect the city. Rybak countered that
he has done well despite huge state and federal cuts.
McLaughlin has been endorsed by the Minneapolis Police Federation and was
expected to draw heavily on other unions for his support.
But the poll showed that only 27 percent of the city's likely voters are union
members. Of those, 33 percent said they would vote for Rybak while 49 percent
would vote for McLaughlin and 18 percent were undecided.
"It's a stark picture of how far labor has fallen," Jacobs said. "The
traditional DFL coalition is no longer a powerhouse in Minneapolis."
McLaughlin said he was cheered by the poll's findings that Rybak does not yet
have a clear majority.
"If the incumbent isn't at 50 percent at this point, he's got a problem," he
said.
Jacobs said that McLaughlin's best hope lies in winning over the undecided
voters, but added that number would be more problematic for an incumbent in a
presidential or U.S. Senate race. "The mayor's race tends to be lower profile
so people aren't tuned in yet," Jacobs said.
In another interesting result, the poll found that Rybak draws his strength
from DFL voters, not Republican and independent voters as expected. The mayor
holds a 48 percent to 34 percent advantage over his rival among DFLers.
McLaughlin leads 47 percent to 27 percent among independents and 41 percent to
35 percent among Republicans.
The survey was conducted for the institute's 2005 Elections Project by the
University of Connecticut. Some 884 adults were polled by telephone from Oct.
17-29, producing a sample of 371 likely voters. The poll has a margin of error
of 5.1 percentage points.
Matt McKinney contributed to this story.
Rochelle Olson 612-673-1747
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