Dear Brian,
Yes, there was great hope from emergence, and the expected results did not 
materialise.  But was that because emergence was not adequately understood, or 
was it because emergence per se is limited.  My instinct is that it is more the 
former than the latter.

Let us take the example of a termites nest, which is one of the highly cited 
examples on emergence in living systems.  The wonderful order in large termites 
nests emerges not because there is leadership in the termites, but because 
termites leave pheromone trails when they move, can sense the pattern of 
movement that has happened earlier, and have ingrained responses to place mud 
in the act of nest building based on pheromone patterns that they recognise.  
Thus one can identify the conditions for emergence as:
High-synchrony and high-frequency physical interaction
All actions and interactions leave traces
There is an impulse toward pattern recognition in the traces.
Levels of information symmetry are very high as all information is in the 
public domain
There is a low preoccupation with grand design, and the focus is on immediate 
experience and engagement
The system develops through iterative evolutionary spirals of pattern 
recognition

There was great hope when social media began to play a role in political 
struggle, the Arab Spring being a prime example.  It was felt that relatively 
leaderless revolutions and the openness of the new media laid the grounds for 
emergence.  When that did not happen, faith in emergence fell.  But an 
open-ended system of public exchanges is not necessarily emergent, for it does 
not necessarily lay the grounds for emergence.  To identify a few concerns:
Recognition: As Lawrence Lessig points out, there is a significant difference 
between recognition in physical space and cyberspace.  He cites the example of 
a pornography store.  In a physical store, if an eight-year old child walks in, 
there is immediate recognition of a problem, whereas in cyberspace this 
recognition is more problematic given the ease with which false identity and 
anonymity are possible in cyberspace.  Equally significant is the fact that the 
masks of identity and anonymity are equally available to the person who is 
doing the recognising, which is a new capability that power can now utilise.  
Lessig argues that cyberspace needs its own legal system, and one cannot merely 
extend the law of physical space into cyberspace.  But we also need to realise 
that the question of recognition is one of the most inadequately acknowledged 
questions in politics.  This dates back to the US constitution, which is held 
up often as a beacon on democracy and human rights, but failed to recognise 
either misogyny or slavery (a failing that is still to be adequately 
addressed).  And we see it now in the doctrines of neoliberalism that claims a 
form of the economy is good for everyone, but a refusal to indulge in the data 
collection and analytics that will actually measure that claim.  Without 
attention given to an inclusive politics of recognition, emergence will never 
occur.
Axes of the Social Contract:  The hope of emergence came from protest 
movements.  But protest only looks at the vertical axis between citizen and 
state.  This axis contains an asymmetry of power heavily weighted against the 
citizen.  The potential for emergence in lateral connections between citizens, 
where emergence can occur before engagement with the state, has not been 
adequately explored.
Data Trails: Emergence requires that traces of action remain in the public 
domain.  All of us are well aware of the problem here with digital data traces.
Distortions: Specific distortions are possible given the problems in 
recognition what with fake accounts, bots, and so on.  Again, not much needs to 
be said on this given the recent publicity on Russian interference in US 
elections (and no doubt, there are many other such problems that are yet to 
receive public recognition).  Emergence has largely occurred in geographically 
rooted contexts with physical interaction.  This base cannot be easily 
bypassed, and emergence in social media has to look at its connections with 
physical space, and particularly the hierarchies of scale at which physical 
space occurs, operates and evolves.  Without this connection, it is unlikely 
that emergence can happen in socio-political reform.
Flak: Chomsky and Herman, in their analysis “Manufacturing Consent”, argue that 
media remains a tool of propaganda and is not the check on the system that it 
is believed to be.  One of the factors is the ability of the system to generate 
flak that threatens the fundamentals by which media economies work. 
Manufacturing Consent was written before the era of digital media (I wonder if 
the argument has been revisited since), but the ability to generate flak is far 
far greater today.  And it is not just at the level of threatening the 
economics of media institutions, it is also at the level of generating noise at 
a scale that will distort signal.
Reflexivity:  Unlike termites, and many other natural systems that evolve as 
emergent systems, human society is reflexive: we can reflect on ourselves, and 
that reflection can change our future evolution.  This was the basis of Karl 
Popper’s argument for an open society.  Emergence in human systems has to 
foreground how reflexivity will evolve constructively: this is not something 
that will happen automatically.
Participation:  Because social media allows individuals to leave public 
markers, it has been assumed that we are automatically empowering widespread 
participation.  But participation is a complex affair.  Majid Rahnema points 
this out by identifying four dimensions of participation: (a) a cognitive 
dimension, where the development project is constructed through participation; 
(b) a social dimension, where communities emerge and evolve through 
participation; (c) an instrumental dimension, where it is argued that the 
development project will happen more effectively through participation; and (d) 
a political dimension, where a development project claims validation through 
participation.  Most discourse on participation centres on the political and 
instrumental dimensions, with scant attention paid to the cognitive and social 
dimensions.  This is tied to an important distinction highlighted by Seely 
Brown and Duguid in ‘The Social Life of Information’: the difference between 
networks of practice and communities of practice.  People in a network of 
practice have functional or occupational links in common, tend to come together 
within the narrow horizon of such links, but otherwise focus on leading lives 
that are separate from the network, connecting primarily through links (today, 
largely digital) that permit connections across distance.  Communities of 
practice are tied to geographical place, depend heavily on face-to-face 
encounters, and rely on serendipity in community to construct meaning in their 
lives.  Communities of practice focus more on the cognitive and social 
dimensions of participation.  Networks of practice focus more on the political 
and instrumental dimensions of participations.  The hopes on emergence did not 
give enough recognition to this distinction.

To me, it is more of a design challenge than a philosophical dilemma.  How do 
we design the social, political and media institutions the will allow the 
conditions for emergence to thrive.  Our reflexivity will not allow these 
conditions to emerge spontaneously.

Best,
Prem

 

> On 30-Dec-2018, at 12:30 PM, Brian Holmes <bhcontinentaldr...@gmail.com> 
> wrote:
> 
> On Sat, Dec 29, 2018 at 11:29 PM Prem Chandavarkar <prem....@gmail.com 
> <mailto:prem....@gmail.com>> wrote:
> 
> we need to think about the spaces where engagement will happen: engagement 
> that drives widespread reflection on who we are as a society and who we want 
> to be, and leave the question of social models rather open.  How do we seed 
> these spaces? How do we scale them? The question of where these spaces are is 
> more important than what they will produce.
> 
> Prem, how good to hear from you. I wish you well for the upcoming year.
> 
> Concerning emergence, alas, it was the great idea of the 1990s and early 
> 2000s, which a large number of networked political movements took as their 
> "principle of hope" (to quote Ernst Bloch). The keyword of that whole period, 
> for social movements, was "self-organization," which we hoped would 
> revitalize democracy by overcoming the structural devices of social control. 
> But strategic moves by large-scale actors proved to be enough to dissipate 
> emergent attempts to spark social reflection. This became devastatingly clear 
> at the moment of the global street protests against the impending Iraq 
> invasion in 2003, which were just brushed aside by the American state. Later 
> in 2005, during the self-organized protests against the G8 in Geneagles, 
> Scotland, a terrorist attack in the London underground focused all media 
> attention and made the protest movements simply vanish from public awareness. 
> Emergence had been "pre-empted," to use another of the keywords from that 
> time.
> 
> Nowadays I continue to find the theories of emergence valuable, as a better 
> description of how innovation takes place within and alongside complex 
> organizations. But it seems that emergent phenomena can be analyzed 
> statistically, and once their composition and properties are more or less 
> known, large-scale actors (state or corporate) can reshape the conditions of 
> emergence in order to reassert social control. It is precisely because I 
> lived through this experience that I have returned to asking questions about 
> the state and civil society. It seems clear that major changes of course 
> require the alignment of institutional priorities and the coordinated 
> exercise of both coercion and incentivization. Emergent phenomena remain 
> marginal, even insignificant, without access to the modernist techniques of 
> social steering. And so the great innovative question, "How to dissolve state 
> power?" has been set aside, in favor of the dauntingly traditional one: "How 
> to take state power?"
> 
> The current thread takes the US conditions as an example, but there could be 
> many others and everyone is free to chip in on the basis of their local or 
> regional situation. The whole world is at a turning point, due to the 
> consolidation of oligarchical control over the global political economy and 
> the contradictory need to replace fossil fuels, which have been the literal 
> power-source of capitalism over the last two centuries. Practically 
> everywhere in the developed world one sees the influence of a popular 
> nostalgia for twentieth-century industrial prosperity, with all its attendant 
> hierarchies and oppressions - a nostalgia instrumentalized by 
> neo-authoritarian political forces. These forces have been startlingly 
> effective over the last few years, but people are now mobilizing against them.
> 
> The theory of emergence can help one to spot new social phenomena in statu 
> nascendi, and in that sense, your focus on where reflection and engagement 
> begin to happen is quite valuable. I agree, asking where social innovation 
> happens, and attending to exactly what is heppening there, is a necessary 
> starting point. However, emergence on its own appears useless as a principle 
> of hope. And so is any return to the strategies and organizational forms of 
> the 1930s. New social and ecological ideals are effectively emerging. This 
> discussion is about identifying them, and simultaneously, looking ahead to 
> find ways of implementing them in reality. Concepts such as "vision" and 
> "model" - or for that matter, "strategy" - may appear constrictive by 
> comparison to the molecular ferment of emergent behavior, but if you want to 
> see any implementation at scale, they remain crucial. How to share a vision? 
> How to embody a model? How to carry out a strategy? I think the future hangs 
> in the balance of those questions.
> 
> best, Brian 
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