Hi Daniel, the 1-step prediction does not seem that bad to me. For readibility of the graph, you could plot just raw-k_step data (more images). You did not enclose CLA settings (description.py / model_params.py), also you could use swarming to get some improvement (if you don't do that already). For the predictions, 4k of data is really not that much (what is your expected "period" in the data? - a day, a week?), further you could: -use more data (eg by just repeating the 4k of data multiple times in the input stream). -for the "further ahead" predictions use aggregation
Cheers, mark On Mon, May 26, 2014 at 2:13 PM, Daniel Cohen <[email protected]> wrote: > I asked a while ago - when I responded to further questions I didn't get a > further response, so here I am asking again. > > This is a data set taken from google analytics - it is almost 2 years of > web traffic data by date hour - that's about 4000 data points. > > > > I ran through the same process I used for the sine wave prediction tutorial > except I added more prediction steps. The attached .png is an extract of > the > plot. Even the 1 step prediction is disappointing and I'd expect better > after 4000 data points. The 10 step prediction is almost wholly unreliable > and anything beyond that is useless. Sure the predictions are within the > right range of points but you couldn't base anything useful off them. They > don't even seem to have picked up on the hourly modulation throughout a > day. > > Is there any way to improve the prediction quality without simply using > more data points? > > search_def.json <http://justpaste.it/fhwk> > > visits.csv< > https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B8imHXOv0rGcSXVmREV6QTVlTjA/edit?usp=sharing > > > > The visits are by datehour to increase the number of data points. I wasn't > expecting great things from the 1000 step prediction but I did want to test > it. The 10 step and 100 step I did expect much more from though. > > _______________________________________________ > nupic mailing list > [email protected] > http://lists.numenta.org/mailman/listinfo/nupic_lists.numenta.org > > -- Marek Otahal :o)
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