saya kurang ngerti Makro sih. tapi yg jelas kalo ga salah ambil kesimpulan. Kondisinya kalo kaya sekarang kan pemulihan Ekonomi Amerika belun keliatan nyata. sementara upaya banjirin likuiditas dari mereka juga udah optimum (lebih dari ini level defisit mereka udah terlalu parah). yang berarti peran "konsumsi dunia" sekarang udah susah tetep dipegang Amerika lagi., nah siapa yg mo mikul beban ambil alih "konsumsi dunia" supaya pemulihan ekonomi dunia bisa berlangsung tidak terlalu lama. cina sendiri keliatannya rada hesitant juga jadi 1 1nya pengambil alih konsumsi dunia sekarang ini. yg jadi masalah adalah kalo pemulihan ekonomi baru terjadi rada lama dari sekarang (kurva pemulihannya akan berbentuk L bukan V) maka penyakit2 yg sekarang udah agak tertahan semacem klaim CDS, tagihan seret, pinjeman bermasalah bisa muncul lagi ke permukaan dan bikin semuanya jadi kurang cihuy lah buat pasar keuangan. good thing nya sih US paling tidak sampe semester depan masih harus terus jaga suku bunganya di level rendah. ini akan menguntungkan buat negara2 yg secara natural tidak terlalu bergantung pada ekspor untuk menggerakkan ekonominya (Indonesia salah satunya)
BTW bicara sedikit tentang deflasi china yg diekspor ke seluruh dunia. asli saya kaget kemaren liat HP China ternyata murah2 amat ya dengan fitur2 yg lumayan. itu costnya berapa bisa ampe lepas barang di harga segitu.. gile.... On 8/21/09, Ferry <ferry.wachj...@gmail.com> wrote: > > > > Kang Ocoy, > > > > Jadi hanya itu dampaknya? > > > > Rgds, > > > > *From:* obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com [mailto: > obrolan-ban...@yahoogroups.com] *On Behalf Of *Bagus Putra Perdana > *Sent:* Friday, August 21, 2009 2:48 PM > *To:* obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com > *Subject:* Re: [ob] China Third-Quarter GDP Seen up 8.5%, No Inflation > > > > > > hehe. China CPI turun terus.. diEksporlah Deflasinya kesini.. barang yg > udah "murah" dilempar lebih murah lagi. since Indonesia Rakyatnya pada doyan > belanja.. kebetulan domestic liquiditynya juga lumayan..disikatlah itu > barang2 turunan deflasi. so every Indonesian will lend their shoulders > helping distant brother china taking care of world's economic recovery ya. > jadi? marilah kita belanja gitu maksudnya?! > > > > No Specific Stocks Recommendation? please share a bit here kind lady... > Afterall we here Indonesian should be shopping rite?! > > > > On 8/21/09, *Elaine Sui* <elainesu...@gmail.com> wrote: > > > > *The media is starting to use the word 'deflation' everywhere. Be careful. > I predict these words are the hot topics for 2H09 - 1H10:* > > - *deflation: this is the root of all evil. Oversupply, low demand, > tight credit.* > - *unemployment: productions halted, less purchasing power.* > - *debt bubble / USD crash: the end of western domination, and the > destruction of capitalism.* > - > - *H1N1: deadly decoy.* > - *US - China trade war: it is happening.* > > *But it would be unfair if I just mention the potential bad news. I also > have these:* > > - *Domestic driven demand: toll roads, micro finance, infrastructure, > public transportation* > - *Deflation is a good things for consumers, I know Indonesian are all > shopping freaks! lolz* > > *I reduce the risk for NK crisis and election issue as they shows better > than expected result. Worst case scenario, the US will disintegrate like the > soviet union. If this happens, BUY! I dunno when or how much this will > affect the financial market. Give me some prediction.. > > Fundamentally Indonesia is better than the rest, but this is not the case. > The world market is driven by sentiments, greed and fear, and its ripple > effect will spread throughout the world. > > New high? it's possible. -1000, that's an opportunity. I will adapt with > the market sentiment (NEUTRAL). The average data reported by the officials > show recovery progress, but how far will it stretch? Most of the 'good news' > are engineered, earnings are boosted because of lay offs, debt > restructuring/write off, asset sales, mergers/acquisition, and tax cuts. At > least in the US, but could be very different with Indonesia. > > So I will say: **Buy on US weakness.** > > Feel free to discuss, friends. I'm sorry, I cannot recommend specific > stocks at this time. > > Elaine* > > On Fri, Aug 21, 2009 at 10:17 AM, Peter Alimin <milis...@live.com> wrote: > > > > China Third-Quarter GDP Seen up 8.5%, No Inflation > > CHINA, GDP, GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT, ECONOMY, GROWTH > > Reuters > > | 20 Aug 2009 | 09:47 PM ET > > China's gross domestic product will grow about 8.5 percent in the third > quarter from a year earlier, picking up from the second quarter's 7.9 > percent pace, a government think-tank said on Friday. > > The bullish forecast comes against a background of anxiety in world markets > that Chinese growth might falter as a boom in fiscal spending and bank > lending peters out. > > The State Information Centre (SIC) said growth in bank credit would > "normalize" in coming months but warned that any abrupt slowdown in lending > would leave many state-backed projects unfinished and result in a new crop > of non-performing loans. > > New lending will rebound to about 500 billion yuan ($73 billion) in August > after shrinking to 356 billion yuan in July, the official China Securities > Journal reported. > > In a report carried in the same paper, the SIC said China would stick to > its "proactive" fiscal policy and "appropriately loose" monetary stance in > the second half of the year. > > "China's CPI has been falling for many months and it's a fact that mild > deflation exists, so there is no basis for China to alter its monetary > policy," the think-tank, which comes under China's economic planning agency, > said. > > It forecast that the consumer price index (CPI) would fall 1.3 percent this > quarter from a year earlier and the producer price index would decline 7.9 > percent due to the high base of comparison in 2008. > > The SIC said the Chinese economy has bottomed out but is still growing > below potential, mainly due to weak exports. > > Exports would fall 20 percent in the third quarter, compared with a year > earlier, with imports dropping 12.7 percent, the think-tank forecast. > > Capital spending would remain a key driver for the world's third-largest > economy, and urban fixed-asset investment was likely to rise 32 percent in > the third quarter, it said. > > Strong investment is exacerbating many deeply rooted problems, including > over-capacity, the think-tank said. It listed steel and cement as sectors > with serious over-capacity. > > "It is extremely bad for China's future industrial restructuring and > upgrading," the SIC said. > > It said property investment could potentially replace government spending > as the next key driver of growth. > > Copyright 2009 Reuters. Click for restrictions. > > > ------------------------------ > > Party with Buddy! Bling out your Messenger with free winks & emoticons. Click > here<http://discover.windowslive.com/en-id/messenger/messengeris10/#/downloads> > > > > > > > -- > Each piece, or part, of the whole nature is always an approximation to the > complete truth, or the complete truth so far as we know it. In fact, > everything we know is only some kind of approximation, because we know that > we do not know all the laws as yet. Therefore, things must be learned only > to be unlearned again or, more likely, to be corrected.......The test of all > knowledge is experiment. Experiment is the sole judge of scientific “truth”. > - Richard Feynman > > > -- Each piece, or part, of the whole nature is always an approximation to the complete truth, or the complete truth so far as we know it. In fact, everything we know is only some kind of approximation, because we know that we do not know all the laws as yet. Therefore, things must be learned only to be unlearned again or, more likely, to be corrected.......The test of all knowledge is experiment. Experiment is the sole judge of scientific “truth”. - Richard Feynman
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