wah, signal nih... minyak goreng, kertas, mobil.... cek chart dah... :-D
MD On Fri, Aug 21, 2009 at 4:53 PM, Dean Earwicker <dean.earwic...@gmail.com>wrote: > Di Indonesia sering terjadi anomali... untuk barang dengan fungsi yang > sama (spt HP), orang lebih milih hp yang lebih mahal, katakanlah > branded, dibanding hp china. Kita masih menganut paham "ada harga, ada > rupa", alias harga menentukan kualitas (ada benernya juga sih) > > Bbrp bulan lalu, ada sale sendal CROC yang mahal itu, dan antriannya > naujubilah penuh sesek, yang kalo dilihat sebenernya engga worth it > punya sendal teplek seharga 300rb, sementara di carefour sendal serupa > bisa diperoleh dgn harga 25rb. > > Hal serupa juga terjadi pada booming blackberry, padahal cuma buat > chatting gak jelas, sama upload facebook (yang juga engga jelas). > Hebat yah kita, di sektor riil engga ada tuh krisis. Krisis cuma ada > di bursa saham sama di OB doang. hehehe.. > > Bener kata EL, deflasi menguntungkan konsumen spt kita, wong harga > turun tapi gaji sama bonus tetep, malah naek... heheh > > Tapi menjelang bulan puasa+lebaran, belum pernah tuh harga turun, > malah pada naik nih.. apalagi minyak goreng.. minyak goreng.. minyak > goreng.. minyak goreng.. kertas.. kertas.. kertas.. kertas.. mobil.. > mobil.. mobil.. mobil... > > > Regards, > DE > > 2009/8/21 Bagus Putra Perdana <disclosure....@gmail.com>: > > > > > > saya kurang ngerti Makro sih. tapi yg jelas kalo ga salah ambil > kesimpulan. > > Kondisinya kalo kaya sekarang kan pemulihan Ekonomi Amerika belun > keliatan > > nyata. sementara upaya banjirin likuiditas dari mereka juga udah optimum > > (lebih dari ini level defisit mereka udah terlalu parah). yang berarti > peran > > "konsumsi dunia" sekarang udah susah tetep dipegang Amerika lagi., nah > siapa > > yg mo mikul beban ambil alih "konsumsi dunia" supaya pemulihan ekonomi > dunia > > bisa berlangsung tidak terlalu lama. cina sendiri keliatannya rada > hesitant > > juga jadi 1 1nya pengambil alih konsumsi dunia sekarang ini. yg jadi > masalah > > adalah kalo pemulihan ekonomi baru terjadi rada lama dari sekarang (kurva > > pemulihannya akan berbentuk L bukan V) maka penyakit2 yg sekarang udah > agak > > tertahan semacem klaim CDS, tagihan seret, pinjeman bermasalah bisa > muncul > > lagi ke permukaan dan bikin semuanya jadi kurang cihuy lah buat pasar > > keuangan. good thing nya sih US paling tidak sampe semester depan masih > > harus terus jaga suku bunganya di level rendah. ini akan menguntungkan > buat > > negara2 yg secara natural tidak terlalu bergantung pada ekspor untuk > > menggerakkan ekonominya (Indonesia salah satunya) > > > > BTW bicara sedikit tentang deflasi china yg diekspor ke seluruh dunia. > asli > > saya kaget kemaren liat HP China ternyata murah2 amat ya dengan fitur2 yg > > lumayan. itu costnya berapa bisa ampe lepas barang di harga segitu.. > > gile.... > > > > On 8/21/09, Ferry <ferry.wachj...@gmail.com> wrote: > >> > >> > >> > >> Kang Ocoy, > >> > >> > >> > >> Jadi hanya itu dampaknya? > >> > >> > >> > >> Rgds, > >> > >> > >> > >> From: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com > >> [mailto:obrolan-ban...@yahoogroups.com] On Behalf Of Bagus Putra > Perdana > >> Sent: Friday, August 21, 2009 2:48 PM > >> To: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com > >> Subject: Re: [ob] China Third-Quarter GDP Seen up 8.5%, No Inflation > >> > >> > >> > >> > >> > >> hehe. China CPI turun terus.. diEksporlah Deflasinya kesini.. barang yg > >> udah "murah" dilempar lebih murah lagi. since Indonesia Rakyatnya pada > doyan > >> belanja.. kebetulan domestic liquiditynya juga lumayan..disikatlah itu > >> barang2 turunan deflasi. so every Indonesian will lend their shoulders > >> helping distant brother china taking care of world's economic recovery > ya. > >> jadi? marilah kita belanja gitu maksudnya?! > >> > >> > >> > >> No Specific Stocks Recommendation? please share a bit here kind lady... > >> Afterall we here Indonesian should be shopping rite?! > >> > >> > >> > >> On 8/21/09, Elaine Sui <elainesu...@gmail.com> wrote: > >> > >> > >> > >> The media is starting to use the word 'deflation' everywhere. Be > careful. > >> I predict these words are the hot topics for 2H09 - 1H10: > >> > >> deflation: this is the root of all evil. Oversupply, low demand, tight > >> credit. > >> unemployment: productions halted, less purchasing power. > >> debt bubble / USD crash: the end of western domination, and the > >> destruction of capitalism. > >> > >> H1N1: deadly decoy. > >> US - China trade war: it is happening. > >> > >> But it would be unfair if I just mention the potential bad news. I also > >> have these: > >> > >> Domestic driven demand: toll roads, micro finance, infrastructure, > public > >> transportation > >> Deflation is a good things for consumers, I know Indonesian are all > >> shopping freaks! lolz > >> > >> I reduce the risk for NK crisis and election issue as they shows better > >> than expected result. Worst case scenario, the US will disintegrate like > the > >> soviet union. If this happens, BUY! I dunno when or how much this will > >> affect the financial market. Give me some prediction.. > >> > >> Fundamentally Indonesia is better than the rest, but this is not the > case. > >> The world market is driven by sentiments, greed and fear, and its ripple > >> effect will spread throughout the world. > >> > >> New high? it's possible. -1000, that's an opportunity. I will adapt with > >> the market sentiment (NEUTRAL). The average data reported by the > officials > >> show recovery progress, but how far will it stretch? Most of the 'good > news' > >> are engineered, earnings are boosted because of lay offs, debt > >> restructuring/write off, asset sales, mergers/acquisition, and tax cuts. > At > >> least in the US, but could be very different with Indonesia. > >> > >> So I will say: Buy on US weakness. > >> > >> Feel free to discuss, friends. I'm sorry, I cannot recommend specific > >> stocks at this time. > >> > >> Elaine > >> > >> On Fri, Aug 21, 2009 at 10:17 AM, Peter Alimin <milis...@live.com> > wrote: > >> > >> > >> > >> China Third-Quarter GDP Seen up 8.5%, No Inflation > >> > >> CHINA, GDP, GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT, ECONOMY, GROWTH > >> > >> Reuters > >> > >> | 20 Aug 2009 | 09:47 PM ET > >> > >> China's gross domestic product will grow about 8.5 percent in the third > >> quarter from a year earlier, picking up from the second quarter's 7.9 > >> percent pace, a government think-tank said on Friday. > >> > >> The bullish forecast comes against a background of anxiety in world > >> markets that Chinese growth might falter as a boom in fiscal spending > and > >> bank lending peters out. > >> > >> The State Information Centre (SIC) said growth in bank credit would > >> "normalize" in coming months but warned that any abrupt slowdown in > lending > >> would leave many state-backed projects unfinished and result in a new > crop > >> of non-performing loans. > >> > >> New lending will rebound to about 500 billion yuan ($73 billion) in > August > >> after shrinking to 356 billion yuan in July, the official China > Securities > >> Journal reported. > >> > >> In a report carried in the same paper, the SIC said China would stick to > >> its "proactive" fiscal policy and "appropriately loose" monetary stance > in > >> the second half of the year. > >> > >> "China's CPI has been falling for many months and it's a fact that mild > >> deflation exists, so there is no basis for China to alter its monetary > >> policy," the think-tank, which comes under China's economic planning > agency, > >> said. > >> > >> It forecast that the consumer price index (CPI) would fall 1.3 percent > >> this quarter from a year earlier and the producer price index would > decline > >> 7.9 percent due to the high base of comparison in 2008. > >> > >> The SIC said the Chinese economy has bottomed out but is still growing > >> below potential, mainly due to weak exports. > >> > >> Exports would fall 20 percent in the third quarter, compared with a year > >> earlier, with imports dropping 12.7 percent, the think-tank forecast. > >> > >> Capital spending would remain a key driver for the world's third-largest > >> economy, and urban fixed-asset investment was likely to rise 32 percent > in > >> the third quarter, it said. > >> > >> Strong investment is exacerbating many deeply rooted problems, including > >> over-capacity, the think-tank said. It listed steel and cement as > sectors > >> with serious over-capacity. > >> > >> "It is extremely bad for China's future industrial restructuring and > >> upgrading," the SIC said. > >> > >> It said property investment could potentially replace government > spending > >> as the next key driver of growth. > >> > >> Copyright 2009 Reuters. Click for restrictions. > >> > >> > >> > >> ________________________________ > >> > >> Party with Buddy! Bling out your Messenger with free winks & emoticons. > >> Click here > >> > >> > >> > >> > >> -- > >> Each piece, or part, of the whole nature is always an approximation to > the > >> complete truth, or the complete truth so far as we know it. In fact, > >> everything we know is only some kind of approximation, because we know > that > >> we do not know all the laws as yet. Therefore, things must be learned > only > >> to be unlearned again or, more likely, to be corrected.......The test of > all > >> knowledge is experiment. Experiment is the sole judge of scientific > “truth”. > >> - Richard Feynman > > > > > > -- > > Each piece, or part, of the whole nature is always an approximation to > the > > complete truth, or the complete truth so far as we know it. In fact, > > everything we know is only some kind of approximation, because we know > that > > we do not know all the laws as yet. Therefore, things must be learned > only > > to be unlearned again or, more likely, to be corrected.......The test of > all > > knowledge is experiment. Experiment is the sole judge of scientific > “truth”. > > - Richard Feynman > > > > > > > ------------------------------------ > > + + > + + + + + > Mohon saat meREPLY posting, text dari posting lama dihapus > kecuali diperlukan agar CONTEXTnya jelas. > + + + + + > + +Yahoo! Groups Links > > > >
