Indeed EPV BUMI bisa kasih angka diatas Rp 3000 kalo ASPnya bagus. (dan kalo bicara long term memang logisnya ASP Coal pasti bagus) tapi jangka pendek harus in-check dulu volume outputnya. volume output juga bisa jadi indikator ASP karena kalo volume gak terlalu digenjot bisa berarti juga ada kesulitan buat dapet pemesan yg mau beli di ASP tinggi.
kita liat volume produksi aja. terutama karena dileep selalu bilang 100 juta ton di 2012 atau kenaikan 50 juta ton dari angka output tahun 2008 yang berarti kita mau liat ada peningkatan volume 7-12 juta ton tahun ini. (kalo bisa 100 juta ton 2012 mah BUMI 10000 iya deh) minimal manajemen harus TUNJUKKIN operation-wise sanggup kasih kita bukti peningkatan dan target volume dan penjualan termaterialisasi., baru deh fair kita hargain yg PANTES di pasar. masa manajemen ngurusin CA en harga saham di pasar sih bukannya fokus produksi dan operasi. On Wed, Sep 2, 2009 at 12:43 PM, Bagus Putra Perdana < disclosure....@gmail.com> wrote: > Harga Target diatas 3000 terlalu demanding dan kurang kasih proteksi > downside kalo ada capaian yg gak sesuai proyeksi. > > Sell-Siders terlalu fokus pada ASP 2010-2011 dan setelahnya., analisa > mereka terlalu menitik-beratkan pada ASP bukan volume tercapai. > ini memberikan proteksi yg minim untuk downside karena ASP sangat sulit > untuk ditebak dan upgrade-downgrade asumsi $5-$10 untuk ASP aja udah enteng > ngangkat TP dari netral-buy ato sebaliknya. harusnya lebih ke volume > produksi lebih aman untuk dicermati. karena ; > > 1. Volume yg tidak sesuai harapan bisa berarti ada perlambatan pesanan dari > pembeli mancanegara (produsen2 listrik nunggu ekonomi benar2 pulih jd tunda > pesanan atau re-negosiasi). Ingat BUMI 2008 cuma bisa Output 53 Juta Ton. > hanya meningkat 1 juta ton dari 2007 yg 52 Juta ton. meski memang BUMI > dirundung masalah batas lahan dan hujan, ini sih kasih minimal produksi bisa > di level 55 juta ton tapi ya untuk upside menuju 100 juta ton 2012 kesannya > terlalu muluk saat ini. > > 2. tidak segampang itu elevate volume produksi. > Dharma Henwa untuk Q109 cuma membukukan kenaikan pendapatan kurang dari > 10% dari Q408, sementara pendapatan mereka kan dari volume overburden > removal, volume overburden removal berarti tidak naik signifikan dan berarti > KPC tidak dalam langkah rapid kejar produksi karena mungkin pasar rill batu > bara ekspor juga gak sebegitu bergairahnya. > > > dibawah 2600 bisa kasih kita proteksi downside, as simple as that. MOS. > kalo Bos Art bisa kasih dibawah 2600 kan berarti lebih nyaman buat Investor > pegang BUMI. Upsidenya nanti jadi bonus. > > On Wed, Sep 2, 2009 at 12:04 PM, Ferry <ferry.wachj...@gmail.com> wrote: > >> >> >> Ahhh....citi mau jualan kali. Biar ada yg nampung tuch! >> >> >> -----Original Message----- >> From: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com >> <obrolan-bandar%40yahoogroups.com>[mailto: >> obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com <obrolan-bandar%40yahoogroups.com>] >> On Behalf Of Bagus Putra Perdana >> Sent: Wednesday, September 02, 2009 12:03 PM >> To: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com <obrolan-bandar%40yahoogroups.com> >> Subject: Re: Bls: [ob] BUMI (TP Rp3,800) - Citigroup: Upgrade to Buy: >> Leveraged Play on Better Thermal Coal Outlook >> >> DUMP lg sedikit Jendral., angka Citi terlalu fokus sama 2010-2011. >> Less cushion for the downside. Hit it. 2600 and lower. Baru enak liat >> FCF yieldnya. Ure the Man! >> >> On 9/2/09, artomoro9 <artomo...@yahoo.co.id <artomoro9%40yahoo.co.id>> >> wrote: >> > >> > ane tanya kang BAGUS dulu yee.. >> > >> > regards, >> > >> > A9 >> > >> > disclaimerontheway >> > >> > --- Pada Rab, 2/9/09, CUMI.JK (Buy, TP 5000) >> > <cumie...@gmail.com<cumienak%40gmail.com>> >> menulis: >> > >> > Dari: CUMI.JK (Buy, TP 5000) <cumie...@gmail.com <cumienak%40gmail.com> >> > >> > Judul: [ob] BUMI (TP Rp3,800) - Citigroup: Upgrade to Buy: Leveraged >> Play >> on >> > Better Thermal Coal Outlook >> > Kepada: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com<obrolan-bandar%40yahoogroups.com> >> > Tanggal: Rabu, 2 September, 2009, 11:20 AM >> > >> > >> > >> > >> > >> > >> > >> > >> > >> > >> > >> > >> > Kali aja pingin ngelawan Jendral Art, >> > atau jendral Art mo beli di 2225, jual di 3800? >> > >> > ======= >> > BUY, BUY, BUY! KEEP BUYING AND NEVER SELL! >> > >> > >> > >> > ---------- Forwarded message ---------- >> > Bumi Resources (BUMI.JK) >> > >> > >> > Upgrade to Buy: Leveraged Play on Better Thermal Coal Outlook >> > >> > Upgrade to Buy/High Risk; Raising target price to Rp3,800 — Robust >> > earnings >> > >> > growth outlook and high FCF yield lead us to upgrade our rating to >> > Buy/High >> > >> > Risk from Sell/Speculative.. The market is pricing in benchmark >> > coal price of c. >> > >> > US$76/ton; meaning upside risks to our US$80-90/ton forecasts for >> > 2010-11. >> > >> > Supportive coal price outlook — Citi’s commodities team >> > recently raised its >> > >> > thermal coal price forecasts for 2010-11 to US$80-90/ton from >> > US$70, citing >> > >> > structural improvement. Prospects of China becoming a sustained >> > net importer >> > >> > of coal provides upside risks to medium and long-term coal price >> > forecasts. >> > >> > Sanity check — Our IDR3,800 target price imputes an >> > EV/reserve of >> > >> > USD5.4/ton (6..8% of 2010E Japan benchmark price of US$80/ton). >> > This >> > >> > compares favorably with the implied EV/reserve from Tata’s >> > acquisition at >> > >> > US$4/ton (7.3% of 2007 benchmark price of US$55/ton). Our ‘floor >> > valuation’ >> > >> > estimate is Rp2,700/share based on DCF and Tata’s implied >> > EV/reserve >> > >> > valuation. >> > >> > Convertible Bond – Double-Edged Sword — With >> > coupon rate of 9.25%, Bumi’s >> > >> > latest US$375m convertible bond is not cheap. Bumi’s capped call >> > option >> > >> > reduces the potential dilution risk while its equity swap position >> > (essentially a >> > >> > leveraged long position in Bumi’s stock) is an unequivocal signal >> > to us that >> > >> > management is bullish on Bumi’s medium and long-term outlook. >> > >> > Transfer of Coverage — We are transferring coverage of >> > BUMI.JK to Kim Kwie >> > >> > Sjamsudin from Margarett Go. >> > >> > >> > >> > >> > >> > >> > >> > >> > >> > >> > >> > >> > >> > >> > >> > >> > >> > >> > >> > >> > >> > >> > >> > >> > >> > >> > >> > >> > >> > Akses email lebih cepat. Yahoo! menyarankan Anda meng-upgrade >> browser >> > ke Internet Explorer 8 baru yang dioptimalkan untuk Yahoo! Dapatkan di >> sini! >> > http://downloads.yahoo.com/id/internetexplorer >> >> -- >> Each piece, or part, of the whole nature is always an approximation to >> the complete truth, or the complete truth so far as we know it. In >> fact, everything we know is only some kind of approximation, because >> we know that we do not know all the laws as yet. Therefore, things >> must be learned only to be unlearned again or, more likely, to be >> corrected.......The test of all knowledge is experiment. Experiment is >> the sole judge of scientific “truth”. - Richard Feynman >> >> ------------------------------------ >> >> + + >> + + + + + >> Mohon saat meREPLY posting, text dari posting lama dihapus >> kecuali diperlukan agar CONTEXTnya jelas. >> + + + + + >> + +Yahoo! Groups Links >> >> >> > > > > -- > Each piece, or part, of the whole nature is always an approximation to the > complete truth, or the complete truth so far as we know it. In fact, > everything we know is only some kind of approximation, because we know that > we do not know all the laws as yet. Therefore, things must be learned only > to be unlearned again or, more likely, to be corrected.......The test of all > knowledge is experiment. Experiment is the sole judge of scientific “truth”. > - Richard Feynman > -- Each piece, or part, of the whole nature is always an approximation to the complete truth, or the complete truth so far as we know it. In fact, everything we know is only some kind of approximation, because we know that we do not know all the laws as yet. Therefore, things must be learned only to be unlearned again or, more likely, to be corrected.......The test of all knowledge is experiment. Experiment is the sole judge of scientific “truth”. - Richard Feynman
