terima kasih pak. atas penjelasannya. Lukman
2009/9/2 Bagus Putra Perdana <disclosure....@gmail.com> > average selling price (harga jual rata-rata) batubara pak lkm. Memang > pastinya ini naik dr taun lalu tp itu dari kontrak yg dibuat tahun > lalu. Untuk jualan batu bara kontrak tahun ini - tahun depan mungkin > lagi banyak renegosiasi dan penawaran yg intensif kalo mau dapet ASP > yg tinggi. Ada teman OB disini yg tahu pasar batubara ekspor? Jualan > lagi bagus harganya gak apa rada seret2 dikit? Saya jg masih nunggu > lapkeu DEWA rilis buat liat pendapatan dan laporan overburden > removelnya buat indikatif upaya BUMI meningkatkan produksi. > > On 9/2/09, lkm jkt <lkm...@gmail.com> wrote: > > Kang Bagus . > > > > ASP = ini singkatan apa ya > > > > maaf loh pertanyaan terlalu dasar > > > > trims > > > > > > > > > > 2009/9/2 Bagus Putra Perdana <disclosure....@gmail.com> > > > >> > >> > >> Indeed EPV BUMI bisa kasih angka diatas Rp 3000 kalo ASPnya bagus. (dan > >> kalo bicara long term memang logisnya ASP Coal pasti bagus) tapi jangka > >> pendek harus in-check dulu volume outputnya. volume output juga bisa > jadi > >> indikator ASP karena kalo volume gak terlalu digenjot bisa berarti juga > >> ada > >> kesulitan buat dapet pemesan yg mau beli di ASP tinggi. > >> > >> kita liat volume produksi aja. terutama karena dileep selalu bilang 100 > >> juta ton di 2012 atau kenaikan 50 juta ton dari angka output tahun 2008 > >> yang > >> berarti kita mau liat ada peningkatan volume 7-12 juta ton tahun ini. > >> (kalo > >> bisa 100 juta ton 2012 mah BUMI 10000 iya deh) > >> > >> minimal manajemen harus TUNJUKKIN operation-wise sanggup kasih kita > bukti > >> peningkatan dan target volume dan penjualan termaterialisasi., baru deh > >> fair > >> kita hargain yg PANTES di pasar. masa manajemen ngurusin CA en harga > saham > >> di pasar sih bukannya fokus produksi dan operasi. > >> > >> On Wed, Sep 2, 2009 at 12:43 PM, Bagus Putra Perdana < > >> disclosure....@gmail.com> wrote: > >> > >>> Harga Target diatas 3000 terlalu demanding dan kurang kasih proteksi > >>> downside kalo ada capaian yg gak sesuai proyeksi. > >>> > >>> Sell-Siders terlalu fokus pada ASP 2010-2011 dan setelahnya., analisa > >>> mereka terlalu menitik-beratkan pada ASP bukan volume tercapai. > >>> ini memberikan proteksi yg minim untuk downside karena ASP sangat sulit > >>> untuk ditebak dan upgrade-downgrade asumsi $5-$10 untuk ASP aja udah > >>> enteng > >>> ngangkat TP dari netral-buy ato sebaliknya. harusnya lebih ke volume > >>> produksi lebih aman untuk dicermati. karena ; > >>> > >>> 1. Volume yg tidak sesuai harapan bisa berarti ada perlambatan pesanan > >>> dari pembeli mancanegara (produsen2 listrik nunggu ekonomi benar2 pulih > >>> jd > >>> tunda pesanan atau re-negosiasi). Ingat BUMI 2008 cuma bisa Output 53 > >>> Juta > >>> Ton. hanya meningkat 1 juta ton dari 2007 yg 52 Juta ton. meski memang > >>> BUMI > >>> dirundung masalah batas lahan dan hujan, ini sih kasih minimal produksi > >>> bisa > >>> di level 55 juta ton tapi ya untuk upside menuju 100 juta ton 2012 > >>> kesannya > >>> terlalu muluk saat ini. > >>> > >>> 2. tidak segampang itu elevate volume produksi. > >>> Dharma Henwa untuk Q109 cuma membukukan kenaikan pendapatan kurang > >>> dari 10% dari Q408, sementara pendapatan mereka kan dari volume > >>> overburden > >>> removal, volume overburden removal berarti tidak naik signifikan dan > >>> berarti > >>> KPC tidak dalam langkah rapid kejar produksi karena mungkin pasar rill > >>> batu > >>> bara ekspor juga gak sebegitu bergairahnya. > >>> > >>> > >>> dibawah 2600 bisa kasih kita proteksi downside, as simple as that. MOS. > >>> kalo Bos Art bisa kasih dibawah 2600 kan berarti lebih nyaman buat > >>> Investor > >>> pegang BUMI. Upsidenya nanti jadi bonus. > >>> > >>> On Wed, Sep 2, 2009 at 12:04 PM, Ferry <ferry.wachj...@gmail.com > >wrote: > >>> > >>>> > >>>> > >>>> Ahhh....citi mau jualan kali. Biar ada yg nampung tuch! > >>>> > >>>> > >>>> -----Original Message----- > >>>> From: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com > >>>> <obrolan-bandar%40yahoogroups.com>[mailto: > >>>> obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com <obrolan-bandar%40yahoogroups.com>] > >>>> On Behalf Of Bagus Putra Perdana > >>>> Sent: Wednesday, September 02, 2009 12:03 PM > >>>> To: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com <obrolan-bandar%40yahoogroups.com> > >>>> Subject: Re: Bls: [ob] BUMI (TP Rp3,800) - Citigroup: Upgrade to Buy: > >>>> Leveraged Play on Better Thermal Coal Outlook > >>>> > >>>> DUMP lg sedikit Jendral., angka Citi terlalu fokus sama 2010-2011. > >>>> Less cushion for the downside. Hit it. 2600 and lower. Baru enak liat > >>>> FCF yieldnya. Ure the Man! > >>>> > >>>> On 9/2/09, artomoro9 <artomo...@yahoo.co.id <artomoro9%40yahoo.co.id > >> > >>>> wrote: > >>>> > > >>>> > ane tanya kang BAGUS dulu yee.. > >>>> > > >>>> > regards, > >>>> > > >>>> > A9 > >>>> > > >>>> > disclaimerontheway > >>>> > > >>>> > --- Pada Rab, 2/9/09, CUMI.JK (Buy, TP 5000) > >>>> > <cumie...@gmail.com<cumienak%40gmail.com>> > >>>> menulis: > >>>> > > >>>> > Dari: CUMI.JK (Buy, TP 5000) <cumie...@gmail.com<cumienak% > 40gmail.com> > >>>> > > >>>> > Judul: [ob] BUMI (TP Rp3,800) - Citigroup: Upgrade to Buy: Leveraged > >>>> Play > >>>> on > >>>> > Better Thermal Coal Outlook > >>>> > Kepada: > >>>> > obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com<obrolan-bandar%40yahoogroups.com> > >>>> > Tanggal: Rabu, 2 September, 2009, 11:20 AM > >>>> > > >>>> > > >>>> > > >>>> > > >>>> > > >>>> > > >>>> > > >>>> > > >>>> > > >>>> > > >>>> > > >>>> > > >>>> > Kali aja pingin ngelawan Jendral Art, > >>>> > atau jendral Art mo beli di 2225, jual di 3800? > >>>> > > >>>> > ======= > >>>> > BUY, BUY, BUY! KEEP BUYING AND NEVER SELL! > >>>> > > >>>> > > >>>> > > >>>> > ---------- Forwarded message ---------- > >>>> > Bumi Resources (BUMI.JK) > >>>> > > >>>> > > >>>> > Upgrade to Buy: Leveraged Play on Better Thermal Coal Outlook > >>>> > > >>>> > Upgrade to Buy/High Risk; Raising target price to Rp3,800 — Robust > >>>> > earnings > >>>> > > >>>> > growth outlook and high FCF yield lead us to upgrade our rating to > >>>> > Buy/High > >>>> > > >>>> > Risk from Sell/Speculative.. The market is pricing in benchmark > >>>> > coal price of c. > >>>> > > >>>> > US$76/ton; meaning upside risks to our US$80-90/ton forecasts for > >>>> > 2010-11. > >>>> > > >>>> > Supportive coal price outlook — Citi’s commodities team > >>>> > recently raised its > >>>> > > >>>> > thermal coal price forecasts for 2010-11 to US$80-90/ton from > >>>> > US$70, citing > >>>> > > >>>> > structural improvement. Prospects of China becoming a sustained > >>>> > net importer > >>>> > > >>>> > of coal provides upside risks to medium and long-term coal price > >>>> > forecasts. > >>>> > > >>>> > Sanity check — Our IDR3,800 target price imputes an > >>>> > EV/reserve of > >>>> > > >>>> > USD5.4/ton (6..8% of 2010E Japan benchmark price of US$80/ton). > >>>> > This > >>>> > > >>>> > compares favorably with the implied EV/reserve from Tata’s > >>>> > acquisition at > >>>> > > >>>> > US$4/ton (7.3% of 2007 benchmark price of US$55/ton). Our ‘floor > >>>> > valuation’ > >>>> > > >>>> > estimate is Rp2,700/share based on DCF and Tata’s implied > >>>> > EV/reserve > >>>> > > >>>> > valuation. > >>>> > > >>>> > Convertible Bond – Double-Edged Sword — With > >>>> > coupon rate of 9.25%, Bumi’s > >>>> > > >>>> > latest US$375m convertible bond is not cheap. Bumi’s capped call > >>>> > option > >>>> > > >>>> > reduces the potential dilution risk while its equity swap position > >>>> > (essentially a > >>>> > > >>>> > leveraged long position in Bumi’s stock) is an unequivocal signal > >>>> > to us that > >>>> > > >>>> > management is bullish on Bumi’s medium and long-term outlook. > >>>> > > >>>> > Transfer of Coverage — We are transferring coverage of > >>>> > BUMI.JK to Kim Kwie > >>>> > > >>>> > Sjamsudin from Margarett Go. > >>>> > > >>>> > > >>>> > > >>>> > > >>>> > > >>>> > > >>>> > > >>>> > > >>>> > > >>>> > > >>>> > > >>>> > > >>>> > > >>>> > > >>>> > > >>>> > > >>>> > > >>>> > > >>>> > > >>>> > > >>>> > > >>>> > > >>>> > > >>>> > > >>>> > > >>>> > > >>>> > > >>>> > > >>>> > > >>>> > Akses email lebih cepat. Yahoo! menyarankan Anda meng-upgrade > >>>> browser > >>>> > ke Internet Explorer 8 baru yang dioptimalkan untuk Yahoo! Dapatkan > di > >>>> sini! > >>>> > http://downloads.yahoo.com/id/internetexplorer > >>>> > >>>> -- > >>>> Each piece, or part, of the whole nature is always an approximation to > >>>> the complete truth, or the complete truth so far as we know it. In > >>>> fact, everything we know is only some kind of approximation, because > >>>> we know that we do not know all the laws as yet. Therefore, things > >>>> must be learned only to be unlearned again or, more likely, to be > >>>> corrected.......The test of all knowledge is experiment. Experiment is > >>>> the sole judge of scientific “truth”. - Richard Feynman > >>>> > >>>> ------------------------------------ > >>>> > >>>> + + > >>>> + + + + + > >>>> Mohon saat meREPLY posting, text dari posting lama dihapus > >>>> kecuali diperlukan agar CONTEXTnya jelas. > >>>> + + + + + > >>>> + +Yahoo! Groups Links > >>>> > >>>> > >>> > >>> > >>> -- > >>> Each piece, or part, of the whole nature is always an approximation to > >>> the > >>> complete truth, or the complete truth so far as we know it. In fact, > >>> everything we know is only some kind of approximation, because we know > >>> that > >>> we do not know all the laws as yet. Therefore, things must be learned > >>> only > >>> to be unlearned again or, more likely, to be corrected.......The test > of > >>> all > >>> knowledge is experiment. Experiment is the sole judge of scientific > >>> “truth”. > >>> - Richard Feynman > >>> > >> > >> > >> > >> -- > >> Each piece, or part, of the whole nature is always an approximation to > the > >> complete truth, or the complete truth so far as we know it. In fact, > >> everything we know is only some kind of approximation, because we know > >> that > >> we do not know all the laws as yet. Therefore, things must be learned > only > >> to be unlearned again or, more likely, to be corrected.......The test of > >> all > >> knowledge is experiment. Experiment is the sole judge of scientific > >> “truth”. > >> - Richard Feynman > >> > >> > >> > >> > > > > > > > > -- > > Lukman > > > > > -- > Each piece, or part, of the whole nature is always an approximation to > the complete truth, or the complete truth so far as we know it. In > fact, everything we know is only some kind of approximation, because > we know that we do not know all the laws as yet. Therefore, things > must be learned only to be unlearned again or, more likely, to be > corrected.......The test of all knowledge is experiment. Experiment is > the sole judge of scientific “truth”. - Richard Feynman > > > ------------------------------------ > > + + > + + + + + > Mohon saat meREPLY posting, text dari posting lama dihapus > kecuali diperlukan agar CONTEXTnya jelas. > + + + + + > + +Yahoo! Groups Links > > > > -- Lukman
