berat amat topik nya malem ini.
ane mau tidur ah. besok kerja berat ngusung KEJAYAAN BUMI kembali.
nite all. take a rest. C U 2morrow.
regards,
A9
--- Pada Ming, 4/10/09, It's Elaine! <elainesu...@gmail.com> menulis:
Dari: It's Elaine! <elainesu...@gmail.com>
Judul: Re: [ob] The Nightmare of Sang Raksasa - Hyperinflation
Kepada: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com
Tanggal: Minggu, 4 Oktober, 2009, 11:38 PM
For day to day strategy, OB has JT, Tasrul, Embah, Boyz and Artomoro9 which should be more than enough to guide everyone here. I, like yokorusi, only express our opinion from the macro side.
I also understand that my investment strategy is not quite relevant to retail traders so please forgive me for my limited knowledge.
On Sun, Oct 4, 2009 at 11:11 PM, boyz® <m457...@yahoo.com.sg> wrote:
Hahaha... You got me. Awas ya, gw cubit kalo nanti ketemu :P Pls EL... tell me. At least, tell me what are their strategies to minimize the devaluation of their assets. Thanks. :) Salam,
On Sun, Oct 4, 2009 at 11:01 PM, It's Elaine! <elainesu...@gmail.com> wrote:
I cannot tell you on that one  . I don't know the answer. Can somebody help?
On Sun, Oct 4, 2009 at 10:35 PM, boyz® <m457...@yahoo.com.sg> wrote:
Thanks for sharing, EL. I don't think it is secret agenda. Like you said, just common senses. What will become secret agenda is the maneuver of the market's sovereign to anticipate that. From your perspectives, if you think there's asset/fund management institutions that have the same thinking with yours,
where would they put their assets(funds) to secure it from ' devaluation'. (USD devaluated against major currencies, right?) Commodities? Gold? Bonds? Sharia Bonds? Emerging Market Equities? Thanks again.
Salam, 2009/10/4 It's Elaine! <elainesu...@gmail.com>
This is a very bearish post you got there mate! Well, here's my 2 cents, or should we call it, the GREAT AGENDA (ha ha whatever) for 2010:
- US dollar is losing its value, price goes up, but since the US is the biggest consumers for now, inflation will make them lose their purchasing power thus the demand will be weak (as imports get more expensive), less workers and raw materials needed.. A deadly spiral.
- Keep in mind that we must be careful to operate from the best definition of inflation. Though it is commonly thought of as 'rising prices', I prefer the more traditional (and ultimately, more meaningful) definition: 'an increase in the quantity of money and credit'. Rising prices are simply one of the effects of inflation; first you have the inflation in the form of an increase in money and credit and then as an aftereffect we experience rising prices..
- The demand for coal from China (the biggest consumer) and Japan (the biggest importer) are expected to be lower next year as they already have excess supply from last year contract.
- When we talk about inflation, we really mean (cheap) currency. Since China holds the most USD today it means they're in danger as well. Basically they're holding worthless paper. (It's not even in the form of paper), so CIC goes around the world to spread this worthless paper, including to Bumi (lolz)
- Igor Panarin, a Russian economic professor, predicted that the United States of America may disintegrate in late 2010 because of civil war and social unrest (like what happened in Indonesia eleven years ago). I kinda agree with this guy. People's States of China..
- USD collapses and replaced by SDR (or other form of global money) for international trade. You know, currently only 4% of USD is in bank notes (paper), the rest (96%) is electronic money. USD can be created in a matter of a millisecond.
- There will be possibly the biggest (and the last) major catastrophe for stock market around the globe in 2010, thanks to dollar shock. I'd say Buy On Weakness (that is if the global stock exchange doesn't get frozen).
- Alternative energy sources such as biomass, solar, nuclear and natural gas will play major roles in 2010 forward.
- Asia will be flooded with Americans that are looking for jobs. Our job.
- Japan will have population crisis. Japaneses are simply refusing to have children because of high unemployment.
- Many high profile hedge fund like Templeton and Mobius are already betting in Asia ex Japan.
Well, it's not really an agenda, just common sense so please feel free to discuss. No reason to be afraid though as I know Indonesia survived Asian Crisis, right?  . I know, sometimes I made crazy thinking. I expect most of you will not agree with me (as usual), but please kindly share your opinion too. After all these mess, everything will start over again, this is only a lifecycle. We are so lucky to witness this epic turnaround. Woohoo!!
There is no secret agenda, all we have to do is open our mind and think outside the box. Macro economy is not a science, it's an art. lolz..
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