Kl hiperinflasi berarti inflasi tinggi -- biasanya suku bunga jg dikerek tinggi untuk mengimbangi laju inflasi-- kl suku bunga tinggi not good buat pasar modal.
Salam Sent from my BlackBerry® powered by Sinyal Kuat INDOSAT -----Original Message----- From: "tjetjun" <asias...@medancity.com> Date: Mon, 12 Oct 2009 14:05:53 To: <obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com> Subject: Re: [ob] Dow 10,000... numpang nanya yah, karena setengah dari saham saya ada di US, kalau terjadi hiperinflasi, apa saham2 usa akan ambruk juga ? dari tulisan dibawah kayaknya saham akan naik ? karena kalau terjadi hiperinflasi, uang amrik akan runtuh, jadi kalau sahamnya runtuh juga, saya kena dua arah. menurut teman saya, akan runtuh dua2nya.. jadi ada yang punya data bagaimana kondisi saham di amrik sewaktu terjadi inflasi besar2an tahun lalu ? biasanyakan rate meningkat dan saham turun, tapi saat kenaikan lalu yang luar biasa, rate fed dalam keadaan sangat tinggi dan saham tiap hari naik. thks dan salam atas bantuannya --- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com, inpestorpembela...@... wrote: > > Kl gak salah di milis ini beberapa bulan lalu ada yg prediksi (kl gak salah > Stocksforliving) Dow akan ke 10000 sebelum mengalami koreksi besar kembali ke > lowestnya thn lalu. (Cmiiw) > Just be prepare for the worst. > > Disclaimer on > > Sent from my BlackBerry® > powered by Sinyal Kuat INDOSAT > > -----Original Message----- > From: "Aria Bela Nusa" <ariab...@...> > Date: Mon, 12 Oct 2009 19:58:44 > To: <obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com> > Subject: [ob] Dow 10,000... > > > Dow 10,000 > > > By Colin Twiggs > October 12, 3:00 a.m. ET (6:00 p.m. AET) > > These extracts from my trading diary are for educational purposes and should > not be interpreted as investment or trading advice. Full terms and > conditions can be found at Terms of > <http://www.incrediblecharts.com/legal_vizhon/terms_of_use.htm> Use. > > We remain in the high-risk period following the end of the third quarter. > The Dow is also testing its key resistance level of 10000, while the FTSE > 100 and ASX 200 are testing their key level of 5000. Upward breakout would > confirm a bull market, while respect of these levels would warn of a > secondary correction. > > In the long term, we are not out of the woods. John Mauldin in Thoughts From > <http://www.frontlinethoughts.com/article.asp?id=mwo100909> The Frontline > highlights recent research by Peter Bernholz (Professor of Economics at the > University of Basel, Switzerland) into the causes of hyper-inflation. In his > book Monetary <http://astore.amazon.com/incrediblecha-20/detail/1845427785> > Regimes and Inflation: History, Economic and Political Relationships, > Bernholz analyzes 12 of the largest episodes of hyper-inflation in the last > 20 years. All were caused by financing huge public budget deficits through > money creation and he concludes that the tipping point for hyper-inflation > occurs when government deficits exceed 40% of expenditures. > > US budget deficits of 40 per cent or more are projected for 2009 and 2010, a > clear warning despite the current credit contraction. If hyper-inflation > occurs, traders would want to be short on bonds and long on real assets such > as stocks, precious metals and real estate. The recent surge in gold > indicates that inflationary fears are growing. > > > Commodities > > > Baltic Dry Index reversal above 2500 indicates that demand for bulk > commodity shipping is recovering - a positive sign for commodity prices and > resources stocks. Retracement that respects the September low would signal > the start of a primary advance. > > Baltic Dry Index > > The RJ/CRB Commodities Index found support at 250 and is now rallying to > test 270; breakout would confirm a primary advance to 300*. Reversal below > 247 is now unlikely, but would warn of reversal to a primary down-trend. > > CRB Commodities Index > > * Target calculation: 266 + ( 266 - 232 ) = 300 > > > USA > > > Dow Jones Industrial Average > > > The Dow found support at 9500 before rallying to test 10000. Reversal below > 9500 would indicate a secondary correction, while breakout above 10000 would > signal another primary advance. Twiggs Money Flow (21-day), however, still > shows a bearish divergence and reversal below zero would indicate a > correction. In the long term, breakout above 10000 would offer a target of > 12000*; failure of support at 8000 is unlikely, but would signal reversal to > a primary down-trend. > > Dow Jones Industrial Average > > * Target calculation: 10000 + ( 10000 - 8000 ) = 12000 >
