http://www.isn.ethz.ch/news/sw/details.cfm?ID=11246

Hardliners triumph in N Ireland election

ISN SECURITY WATCH (09/05/05) - As expected, the Democratic Unionist
Party (DUP) has emerged as the big winner in Northern Ireland of the
UK general election on 5 May.

Friday's results saw the party, led by fundamentalist preacher Ian
Paisley, gain three seats and increase its vote share by 11 per cent
over the 2001 election results to become the largest Northern Irish
party at Westminister, taking half of the 18 seats representing the
province.
The Ulster Unionist Party (UUP), historically the main representative
of pro-British sentiment in Northern Ireland, lost four of its five
seats, including the constituency of party leader and 1998 Nobel Peace
Prize winner David Trimble.
In response to the crushing defeat, Trimble resigned as party leader
on Saturday afternoon. As recently as 1997, Trimble's party had been
the strongest in Northern Ireland, taking 10 seats at that general
election.
Meanwhile, the nationalist Social, Democratic and Labour Party (SDLP)
remained on 3 seats, despite pre-election predictions that the party
would go the same way as the UUP.

SDLP leader Mark Durkan held the symbolic and fiercely contested Foyle
seat, taking the city of Derry/Londonderry. Sinn F�in had predicted
that its chairman, Mitchel McLaughlin, would take the seat, which was
held by Trimble's fellow 1998 Nobel Laureate John Hume.
Durkan took the seat by almost 6,000 votes, an 11 per cent margin, and
was helped by tactical unionist voting aimed at keeping the seat away
from Sinn F�in, according to DUP candidate William Hay.
An SDLP councilor and campaigner for Durkan present at the
announcement told ISN Security Watch that he was "not one bit
surprised" at the results.
"We worked hard to get our stay-at-home vote out, and the margin of
victory shows that the SDLP is alive in Derry and here to stay," he said.

In a major surprise, the SDLP took the South Belfast seat, as
intra-Unionist UUP-DUP rivalry caused a split vote, paving the way for
the victory of SDLP candidate Alastair McDonnell.
Although Sinn F�in was not able P, as many had predicted, to
obliterate the SDL as a voice for constitutional pro-Irish
nationalism, the party increased its representation at Westminister by
one seat, and its overall vote share by 3 per cent.
Elsewhere the election results were generally in line with
predictions. All seats went to the four main parties, with huge
personal majorities for Paisley in North Antrim and for Sinn F�in
President Gerry Adams, who took 70 per cent of the vote in West Belfast.

With the so-called extremists strengthened at the expense of so-called
moderates - particularly in the Unionist camp - it is not expected
that Northern Ireland's stop-and-go peace process can be revived soon.
The DUP has made informal offers to the SDLP to form a coalition and
revive the dormant executive, which was devolved to Belfast �in a key
provision of the 1998 peace agreement. The SDLP will not do so without
Sinn F�in, as such a move would leave it vulnerable to
intra-nationalist accusations of anti-democratic practice.
Reactions from the Irish and British governments have been cautiously
optimistic. Irish Foreign Minister Dermot Ahern said: "It is now time
for parties that moved to the extremes for electoral purposes to move
back toward the center".

Meanwhile, British Prime Minister Tony Blair's new Cabinet features
Welsh Secretary Peter Hain in a double role as the new Secretary of
State for Northern Ireland. With doubts over the long-term viability
of Blair's premiership, analysts believe that the appointment of the
outspoken South African-born "Hain the Pain" signals the British prime
minister's intent to prioritize Northern Ireland and advance the peace
process as part of his historical legacy.

However, the immediate future will depend on a response by the Irish
Republican Army (IRA) to the election results, and to Adams' recent
call for the IRA to engage in purely democratic means.
An Independent Monitoring Commission report due in the next few days
is expected to state that the IRA is still recruiting and training new
members, rather than moving towards disarmament and disbandment.
(By Simon Roughneen in Derry)





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