On Mar 2, 2009, at 9:37 PM, Henry McGilton (Boulevardier) wrote:

>
> On Mar 2, 2009, at 3:00 PM, Kevin Callahan wrote:
>
>>
>> http://www.nytimes.com/2009/03/03/business/03aig.html?_r=1&hp
>
>
>
> And see Jim Rogers' comments on the subject:
>
> http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/09_10/b4122017811535.htm
> _______________________________________________
> O


He is dead on.   We have pissed away 150 Billion giving AIG bailout  
money but that is going to end up being chump change before Obama is  
done.

"They're making it worse. It's pretty embarrassing for President  
Obama, who doesn't seem to have a clue what's going on—which would  
make sense from his background. And he has hired people who are part  
of the problem."

I'm sorry to say that the only "change" you are going to be able to  
believe in is whatever change is left in your pocket.

We are getting a ring side seat to amateur hour  playing out in the  
new administration.

With the coming inflation even that won't be worth much.

You know all the flak folks took for calling him "dangerously  
nieve"?   Apparently, they didn't know the half of it.
Before the election, you could argue for all the hope and change and  
how the sea levels were going to recede and how fricking COOL it was  
going to be
to get rid of Bushy McHitler.

Well, the election is OVER and now he actually has to do the job.

All his campaign rhetoric an $3 will get him a cup of startbucks plain  
blend.

I know some people are going to think that calling it "amateur hour"  
is harsh, but he is making a series of rookie mistakes that are simply  
embarrassing.

Geithner for example, instead of being the boy wonder, started with  
the fact that he couldn't even get his own taxes right.[1] and  
followed up with a "plan" that
was no plan at all, but a promise of details in the future.

Understand that the  stock market reflects the faith of investors in  
the future growth of companies.  Not the value as of today.

Naturally, the stock market looked at his non-plan and bailed.

In fact,  every time Obama or his people open their mouths the market  
drops like a stone.

But wait.  It gets better.

The Obama budget.   The largest since WWII,  increases taxes on  
individuals making more than 200k  (250k couples)  and adds 800  
BILLION to the base line budget in the future.

Cool, you think.   Tax those rich fuckers..

Well. There are two problems.   One;   60-70 [3] percent of those  
people account for almost ALL of the job creation in the US. and the  
only way you create sustainable jobs
(not a two year spending and then it's over job) is to get those  
people to RISK their capital rather than put it in gold..   Two;   
Guess what?  Not only is he going to increase the taxes on those  
folks, he is going to increase the capital gains rate, so their return  
on their RISK is less valuable.

He is literally telling them NOT to risk their capital and the stock  
market gives you total proof that they are hearing him loud and clear.

The scary thing is that his people claim to be mystified at the  
drop.   If they are actually telling the truth, then we are fucked,  
because are admitting they have no idea what they are doing.

Econ 101 kids..

IF the economy was booming, perhaps you could get away with it but  
it's not.   In fact it's teetering on a depression.  Only a fool would  
risk their capital at the moment, knowing full well that the  
government was going to take a bigger bite later.   IF you have money,  
better to wait for the plummet and buy stuff then. (note:  buy stuff  
like real estate, NOT start new businesses..)

I've said this before and been accused of living in a Ayn Rand'ian  
fantasy world, but guys, you cannot force people to risk their money.   
You have to "entice" them to do it and this administration
is the one living in a fantasy world if they think they can tax their  
way out of this problem.  FDR did it and by some accounts added the  
word GREAT to depression and extended it all the way to WWII..

IF you are making more than 200k at the moment the logical thing to do  
is to move your money into a fixed rate of return investment with a  
couple of percent in gold and just wait out the storm.

That is not going to create jobs in any numbers and there is NOTHING  
the government can do that will force people to invest..  More likely,  
they will hire good tax attorneys, buy tax free municipal bonds
and kick back and wait.


But wait.  It gets better still.

Obama's budget[2] reduces the deduction for charitable giving (bet you  
didn't know that) by claiming that he makes up  for it in the stimulus  
bill.
Let's be frank.  That is retarded.    The stimulus package is ( and it  
absolutely HAS to be) temporary until the economy improves.

So you remove the kind of deductions that the wealthy use to tax  
shelter monies (by giving it to the POOR) and make up for it by one  
time spending.

I thought Democrats liked the poor.  That is a clear "fuck you"  
message to them by cutting off any advantage for the wealthy to give  
in the future.  (let's face it.  the poor cannot give at the same  
level that a gates or buffet can).  Think the tax increases will make  
up the difference and move from charity to more government programs?    
Really?  How has that worked out in the past?

Want to go on?  Let's talks about what it means to spend a couple  
trillion dollars that we don't have. (side note.. honest to god, my HP  
business calculator does not handle trillions..)

That money comes out of the FUTURE production of the US.  Wealth that  
we have not created yet..    The government MUST sell it's debt  
securities to finance this move.

In other words, it has to borrow the money, competing in the market  
with other borrowers, for the same dollars.   IMHO, we are headed to a  
return of the Carter era inflation rates.  (I'll be most of you are  
too young to remember 21% inflation)

Again, if you are wealthy you don't put money in companies in that case.

Obama didn't start this mess, but so far he has made every move  
possible to convert a recession into a depression.

It really does look like amateur hour from my point of view.

The single bright spot in this  (if you are into a shaudenfreud kind  
of thinking) is that all those folks in Europe and around the world
that got down on their knees and begged for Obama are going to watch  
their economies and stock markets track ours to the bottom and there  
is nothing they can do about it.

The US might be properly described as the tallest midget in the room,  
but if we stop buying stuff, and we are about to do just that,
then the entire developed world will feel our pain as will the mideast  
as we stop using oil.

This is just getting started..  (by the way, I bailed completely into  
cash a while back..  so far that move has saved me from a 40% drop..)

=c=


[1]  kind of like screwing up  the 50 piece puzzle for 3 year olds and  
thinking you are qualified do the 1000 piece for adults.. (and getting  
Obama to agree that you are the ONLY person on the planet that can do  
it)

[2]  Pelosi said she  held the budget until AFTER Bush left  (they had  
it last summer) so it would go to an Obama administration from a  
Democrat congress with THEIR spending priorites.  Her words..

[3] Speaking of 60-70%  In New York CITY  (8 Million people).  A  
small, 40 Thousand of them pay 70% of the taxes..  Imagine if 10  
thousand move to a state with a better tax rate..  Ayn Randian?
Well, add more taxes to those folks and see what happens..  Look at  
job flight from California to get an idea..




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