I predict that a lot of folk who are anticipating continual price drops in the digital camera arena may be in for a shock.
A path already exists for sub $1000 DSLRs, and we have pretty good $300 P&S's from most players right now. Here is my prediction: Prices wont EVER go much (if any) lower than that. What will happen is that the price difference to film counterparts will reduce by the film cameras going up in price due to higher production costs as a result of reduced economies of scale - plus the fact that 'hangers on' (sorry - I am one too!) will be reluctantly willing to pay the higher prices as they REALLY want the product still. The analogy to CD/Vinyl is a case in point. CDs really didn't come down in price - what happenned was that LPs and tapes became steadily more expensive until the market died out. Now it is sometimes more expensive to buy an LP than a CD! But still the market continues, and so will the film market. We may have to accept some compromises like digital scanning & printing, but there may be some advantages too. We seem to be seeing (from Kodak at least) the old consumer films being dropped rather than the higher grade films. What is hapenning is that the higher grade films have become the new consumer films. Easy way to improve consumer print film quality without technological advancement. Of course, the film price probably creeps up very gradually as a result. I think we will end up with: Consumer film SLRs being pretty much dropped. 'Luxury' film SLRs continuing with reasonable sales and higher prices than present to a niche market which refuses to die - for a VERY long time. MZ-S/F100 is very much the style of film camera which I believe will survive. A small selection of the better grade films being continued in production to server that market, probably at a lower price than those films cost at the moment but a higher price than the consumer films which have been dropped. Less labs able to develop film, but most existing labs retaining scanning ability so that they can digitally print and do reprints. Mail order (or sendaway from shop to outsourced facility) only if you want true 'wet' prints or slides. Digital cameras offering more and better features, but not at any significantly lower cost than at present. Other manufacturers will obviously produce 300D competitors. The high end (1Ds) may reduce in price a little as the price point is not really well established for these yet. To restate - I see no point in waiting for digital to come down in price unless you want a 300D style piece of plastic. I just don't think it will happen. Fair enough wait for the cameras to be better, but don't expect a price drop unless you want to buy second hand. We shall see... Bet this gets some rants going! > -----Original Message----- > From: Bill Owens [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] > Sent: 19 November 2003 05:05 > To: [EMAIL PROTECTED] > Subject: Re: A conversation with Noritsu. > > > > Bill may be right, or better yet that Noritsu rep he > conversed with. > > It is however rather sad news, if I were forced to buy a > digi P&S no > > matter how good. > > I could be wrong, and probably am, but it appears that the > industry has more or less settled on 6mp for at least the > next several years. This being the case, as R&D costs are > recovered, prices will probably come down in the next year or > two to be competitive with current top of the line film > SLR's. This, coupled with more and more film emulsions being > dropped, will not bode well for future developments in the > film arena. With my *ist D, I have a choice of ISO from 200 > to 3200, the ability to change from daylight to tungsten > films, the ability to adjust to changing light conditions > without resorting to filters, plus no cost for film and > processing. I can print for slightly more than what the > minilabs charge. This all means that in the long run, it > will cost less than an MZ-S. > > Bill > > >
