I went out last night several times. 11:00, 1:00, & 3:00 and did not see an
aurora.
The following was issued yesterday. Tonight and Thursday, aurora are
possible for mid-latitudes, not as strong as last Friday and there's a moon
to contend with. Nevertheless, lot's of this is guesstimates, so it's worth
a look.
Tom C.
All of the activity that occurred on 02 and thus far on 03 April have
resulted in a total of one (possibly two) coronal mass ejections that appear
to contain some mass that is directed toward the Earth. Space weather
forecasters believe there is a chance that a minor auroral storm could
develop on 04 and/or 05 April following the arrival of these CME(s).
Although
the magnitude of the auroral activity is not expected to reach the
intensities that allowed aurora to be observed well into the southern states
and northern Mexico regions on 31 March, there is a fair chance dark-sky
middle latitude regions might be able to glimpse periods of moderately
strong
activity.
A middle latitude auroral activity watch has therefore been issued for
the 04 to 06 April time period, with heaviest emphasis on 04 and 05 April.
People interested in observing auroral activity are encouraged to monitor
conditions and watch for possible periods of enhanced activity occurring on
these dates.
The official middle latitude auroral activity watch has been included
below:
/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\
MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY WATCH
WATCH ISSUED: 09:35 UTC, 03 APRIL 2001
/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\
VALID BEGINNING AT: 00:00 UTC ON 04 APRIL
VALID UNTIL: 19:00 UTC ON 06 APRIL (2 pm EDT, 06 April)
HIGH RISK PERIOD: 04 - 05 APRIL (UTC DAYS)
MODERATE RISK PERIOD: 04 - 06 APRIL
PREDICTED ACTIVITY INDICES: 15, 35, 25, 15 (03 APRIL - 06 APRIL)
POTENTIAL MAGNITUDE OF MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY: MODERATE
POTENTIAL DURATION OF THIS ACTIVITY: MAIN BELT = 18 TO 24 HOURS
MINOR BELT = 24 TO 36 HOURS
ESTIMATED OPTIMUM OBSERVING CONDITIONS: NEAR LOCAL MIDNIGHT
EXPECTED LUNAR INTERFERENCE: MODERATE TO HIGH
OVERALL OPPORTUNITY FOR OBSERVATIONS FROM MIDDLE LATITUDES: FAIR
AURORAL ACTIVITY *MAY* BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...
WASHINGTON STATE TO NORTHERN WYOMING TO SOUTH DAKOTA TO NORTHERN IOWA
TO
NORTHERN ILLINOIS TO NORTHERN INDIANA TO OHIO TO PENNSYLVANIA TO NEW
JERSEY IF CONDITIONS BECOME FAVORABLE.
ACTIVITY *MAY* ALSO BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...
SOUTHERN UNITED KINGDOM AND POSSIBLY EXTREME NORTHERN REGIONS OF FRANCE
TO THE NETHERLANDS TO NORTHERN GERMANY TO NORTHERN POLAND TO NORTHERN
LITHUANIA TO NORTHERN RUSSIA. SOUTHEASTERN AREAS OF AUSTRALIA AND MOST
OF SOUTHERN NEW ZEALAND MAY ALSO SPOT PERIODS OF MODERATELY STRONG
AURORAL ACTIVITY, IF CONDITIONS BECOME AND REMAIN FAVORABLE.
SYNOPSIS...
Auroral activity could intensify following the possible arrival of a
series of obliquely impacting coronal mass ejections beginning on 04 April
and extending possibly into 05 April. These disturbances are associated with
the X-class flares that occurred earlier today from Region 9393. This
activity is expected to produce periods of moderately strong auroral
activity
over the high and possibly many dark-sky middle latitude regions.
Unfortunately, the moon will hamper attempts to view activity during the
next
week as it waxes toward full illumination. Confidence is moderately high
that
these disturbances will in fact impact the Earth. We do not expect a
significant auroral storm as occurred on 31 March. These disturbances will
probably pale in comparison. Nevertheless, aurora watchers are encouraged to
keep close tabs on the sky. Region 9393 has proven capable as a producer of
geoeffective coronal mass ejections. There is a slight chance these
disturbances may also be fairly geoeffective.
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