>From the BBC...
"Noaa 9393 is being carried out of sight by the
Sun's rotation. This means that the vast cloud
of charged particles the flare threw into space
will not collide with the Earth causing auroral
light shows and radio blackouts. "
Norm
aimcompute wrote:
> I went out last night several times. 11:00, 1:00, & 3:00 and did not see an
> aurora.
>
> The following was issued yesterday. Tonight and Thursday, aurora are
> possible for mid-latitudes, not as strong as last Friday and there's a moon
> to contend with. Nevertheless, lot's of this is guesstimates, so it's worth
> a look.
>
> Tom C.
>
> All of the activity that occurred on 02 and thus far on 03 April have
> resulted in a total of one (possibly two) coronal mass ejections that appear
> to contain some mass that is directed toward the Earth. Space weather
> forecasters believe there is a chance that a minor auroral storm could
> develop on 04 and/or 05 April following the arrival of these CME(s).
> Although
> the magnitude of the auroral activity is not expected to reach the
> intensities that allowed aurora to be observed well into the southern states
> and northern Mexico regions on 31 March, there is a fair chance dark-sky
> middle latitude regions might be able to glimpse periods of moderately
> strong
> activity.
>
> A middle latitude auroral activity watch has therefore been issued for
> the 04 to 06 April time period, with heaviest emphasis on 04 and 05 April.
> People interested in observing auroral activity are encouraged to monitor
> conditions and watch for possible periods of enhanced activity occurring on
> these dates.
>
> The official middle latitude auroral activity watch has been included
> below:
>
> /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\
>
> MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY WATCH
>
> WATCH ISSUED: 09:35 UTC, 03 APRIL 2001
>
> /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\
>
> VALID BEGINNING AT: 00:00 UTC ON 04 APRIL
> VALID UNTIL: 19:00 UTC ON 06 APRIL (2 pm EDT, 06 April)
>
> HIGH RISK PERIOD: 04 - 05 APRIL (UTC DAYS)
> MODERATE RISK PERIOD: 04 - 06 APRIL
>
> PREDICTED ACTIVITY INDICES: 15, 35, 25, 15 (03 APRIL - 06 APRIL)
>
> POTENTIAL MAGNITUDE OF MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY: MODERATE
>
> POTENTIAL DURATION OF THIS ACTIVITY: MAIN BELT = 18 TO 24 HOURS
> MINOR BELT = 24 TO 36 HOURS
>
> ESTIMATED OPTIMUM OBSERVING CONDITIONS: NEAR LOCAL MIDNIGHT
>
> EXPECTED LUNAR INTERFERENCE: MODERATE TO HIGH
>
> OVERALL OPPORTUNITY FOR OBSERVATIONS FROM MIDDLE LATITUDES: FAIR
>
> AURORAL ACTIVITY *MAY* BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...
>
> WASHINGTON STATE TO NORTHERN WYOMING TO SOUTH DAKOTA TO NORTHERN IOWA
> TO
> NORTHERN ILLINOIS TO NORTHERN INDIANA TO OHIO TO PENNSYLVANIA TO NEW
> JERSEY IF CONDITIONS BECOME FAVORABLE.
>
> ACTIVITY *MAY* ALSO BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...
>
> SOUTHERN UNITED KINGDOM AND POSSIBLY EXTREME NORTHERN REGIONS OF FRANCE
> TO THE NETHERLANDS TO NORTHERN GERMANY TO NORTHERN POLAND TO NORTHERN
> LITHUANIA TO NORTHERN RUSSIA. SOUTHEASTERN AREAS OF AUSTRALIA AND MOST
> OF SOUTHERN NEW ZEALAND MAY ALSO SPOT PERIODS OF MODERATELY STRONG
> AURORAL ACTIVITY, IF CONDITIONS BECOME AND REMAIN FAVORABLE.
>
> SYNOPSIS...
>
> Auroral activity could intensify following the possible arrival of a
> series of obliquely impacting coronal mass ejections beginning on 04 April
> and extending possibly into 05 April. These disturbances are associated with
> the X-class flares that occurred earlier today from Region 9393. This
> activity is expected to produce periods of moderately strong auroral
> activity
> over the high and possibly many dark-sky middle latitude regions.
> Unfortunately, the moon will hamper attempts to view activity during the
> next
> week as it waxes toward full illumination. Confidence is moderately high
> that
> these disturbances will in fact impact the Earth. We do not expect a
> significant auroral storm as occurred on 31 March. These disturbances will
> probably pale in comparison. Nevertheless, aurora watchers are encouraged to
> keep close tabs on the sky. Region 9393 has proven capable as a producer of
> geoeffective coronal mass ejections. There is a slight chance these
> disturbances may also be fairly geoeffective.
>
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