Thanks. According to the SEC page http://www.sec.noaa.gov/SWN/ , which I
watch everyday not totally understanding what I see... the magnetic field
component and dynamic pressure of the solar wind appear somewhat above
normal at this moment. Don't ask me to explain what I'm saying...
3-day Solar-Geophysical Forecast issued 3 at 22:00 UTC
Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be high. Region 9393
will continue to be a threat for major flares and proton events during the
next three days, although the probabilities will decrease as it rotates
around the solar limb. Region 9415 has also clearly shown major flare
potential and is expected to be a source of M-class flares and probably
additional isolated X-class flares.
Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to increase
to minor to major storm levels during the next 24 hours. The two recent CMEs
from region 9393 are likely to have combined by now, and the size and
possible partial earthward component of the 2nd CME create the expectation
of some interaction at Earth. The response is less certain than in the case
of a full-halo CME and probably less dramatic than the result of a direct,
head-on hit. The forecast is for minor storm levels at the mid-latitudes,
with major storm levels at the higher latitudes. Minor storm conditions are
expected to persist through the second day. Additional activity, most likely
reaching active levels, is possible on the third day due to a glancing blow
from the CME from region 9415. The greater than 10 MeV proton event is
expected to persist through most of tomorrow.
Tom C. (wishes he understood more of what he was reading)
----- Original Message -----
From: "Norman Baugher" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
To: <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
Sent: Wednesday, April 04, 2001 1:25 PM
Subject: Re: Aurora Watch - Possibly Moderately Strong Activity
> From the BBC...
> "Noaa 9393 is being carried out of sight by the
> Sun's rotation. This means that the vast cloud
> of charged particles the flare threw into space
> will not collide with the Earth causing auroral
> light shows and radio blackouts. "
>
> Norm
>
> aimcompute wrote:
>
> > I went out last night several times. 11:00, 1:00, & 3:00 and did not
see an
> > aurora.
> >
> > The following was issued yesterday. Tonight and Thursday, aurora are
> > possible for mid-latitudes, not as strong as last Friday and there's a
moon
> > to contend with. Nevertheless, lot's of this is guesstimates, so it's
worth
> > a look.
> >
> > Tom C.
> >
> > All of the activity that occurred on 02 and thus far on 03 April have
> > resulted in a total of one (possibly two) coronal mass ejections that
appear
> > to contain some mass that is directed toward the Earth. Space weather
> > forecasters believe there is a chance that a minor auroral storm could
> > develop on 04 and/or 05 April following the arrival of these CME(s).
> > Although
> > the magnitude of the auroral activity is not expected to reach the
> > intensities that allowed aurora to be observed well into the southern
states
> > and northern Mexico regions on 31 March, there is a fair chance dark-sky
> > middle latitude regions might be able to glimpse periods of moderately
> > strong
> > activity.
> >
> > A middle latitude auroral activity watch has therefore been issued
for
> > the 04 to 06 April time period, with heaviest emphasis on 04 and 05
April.
> > People interested in observing auroral activity are encouraged to
monitor
> > conditions and watch for possible periods of enhanced activity occurring
on
> > these dates.
> >
> > The official middle latitude auroral activity watch has been
included
> > below:
> >
> > /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\
> >
> > MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY WATCH
> >
> > WATCH ISSUED: 09:35 UTC, 03 APRIL 2001
> >
> > /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\
> >
> > VALID BEGINNING AT: 00:00 UTC ON 04 APRIL
> > VALID UNTIL: 19:00 UTC ON 06 APRIL (2 pm EDT, 06 April)
> >
> > HIGH RISK PERIOD: 04 - 05 APRIL (UTC DAYS)
> > MODERATE RISK PERIOD: 04 - 06 APRIL
> >
> > PREDICTED ACTIVITY INDICES: 15, 35, 25, 15 (03 APRIL - 06 APRIL)
> >
> > POTENTIAL MAGNITUDE OF MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY: MODERATE
> >
> > POTENTIAL DURATION OF THIS ACTIVITY: MAIN BELT = 18 TO 24 HOURS
> > MINOR BELT = 24 TO 36 HOURS
> >
> > ESTIMATED OPTIMUM OBSERVING CONDITIONS: NEAR LOCAL MIDNIGHT
> >
> > EXPECTED LUNAR INTERFERENCE: MODERATE TO HIGH
> >
> > OVERALL OPPORTUNITY FOR OBSERVATIONS FROM MIDDLE LATITUDES: FAIR
> >
> > AURORAL ACTIVITY *MAY* BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...
> >
> > WASHINGTON STATE TO NORTHERN WYOMING TO SOUTH DAKOTA TO NORTHERN
IOWA
> > TO
> > NORTHERN ILLINOIS TO NORTHERN INDIANA TO OHIO TO PENNSYLVANIA TO
NEW
> > JERSEY IF CONDITIONS BECOME FAVORABLE.
> >
> > ACTIVITY *MAY* ALSO BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...
> >
> > SOUTHERN UNITED KINGDOM AND POSSIBLY EXTREME NORTHERN REGIONS OF
FRANCE
> > TO THE NETHERLANDS TO NORTHERN GERMANY TO NORTHERN POLAND TO
NORTHERN
> > LITHUANIA TO NORTHERN RUSSIA. SOUTHEASTERN AREAS OF AUSTRALIA AND
MOST
> > OF SOUTHERN NEW ZEALAND MAY ALSO SPOT PERIODS OF MODERATELY STRONG
> > AURORAL ACTIVITY, IF CONDITIONS BECOME AND REMAIN FAVORABLE.
> >
> > SYNOPSIS...
> >
> > Auroral activity could intensify following the possible arrival of
a
> > series of obliquely impacting coronal mass ejections beginning on 04
April
> > and extending possibly into 05 April. These disturbances are associated
with
> > the X-class flares that occurred earlier today from Region 9393. This
> > activity is expected to produce periods of moderately strong auroral
> > activity
> > over the high and possibly many dark-sky middle latitude regions.
> > Unfortunately, the moon will hamper attempts to view activity during the
> > next
> > week as it waxes toward full illumination. Confidence is moderately high
> > that
> > these disturbances will in fact impact the Earth. We do not expect a
> > significant auroral storm as occurred on 31 March. These disturbances
will
> > probably pale in comparison. Nevertheless, aurora watchers are
encouraged to
> > keep close tabs on the sky. Region 9393 has proven capable as a producer
of
> > geoeffective coronal mass ejections. There is a slight chance these
> > disturbances may also be fairly geoeffective.
> >
> > -
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>
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