There are many differences between the USSR in the 1980s and China today.
Glastnost might have worked, had Russia been a viable state on its own
(like China), and not a kind of parasitical queen-bee sucking the blood of
its soon-to-be independent colonies.
Given the pace of change in China I think it is rash to make too many
predictions. Yes, infra-structure is a problem, as it is in India, but
cities like Shanghai and Hong Kong are far ahead of any Indian city by any
measure you care to name. Admittedly Hong Kong was a gift from Britain,
but Shanghai's transformation is down to the policies of the regional
government there. It's not all central planning any more.
John
On Sun, 06 Nov 2005 21:30:00 -0000, Adam Maas <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
It's certainly possible. But the same could be said of the USSR vs the
US in 1980. And we know what happened.
Given current trends, it's likely that the Chinese Economy is going to
implode within the next 10-15 years, for the same reason the Soviet one
did. But they still can get their act together and build the
infrastructure they need to prevent that.
India on the other hand has steadily been building the necessary
infrastructure, and while they haven't seen the growth China has
(Because they've been building infrastructure instead of just
production), they are in a far better position to take advantage of
things in the future.
Just compare what is getting outsourced and where. China's getting
low-end manufacturing. Stuff that we have the infrastructure to rebuild
fairly quickly if things go ary (Not to say it wouldn't be painful, it
certainly would be) and it's also things that can quickly move elsewhere
if China gets too expensive, which is beginning to happen. Just look at
all the 'Made in Indonesia' and 'Made in Malaysia' stuff that was made
in China 10 years ago. Even where China is moving up in the world, it's
still production stuff, not design. India on the other hand is getting
White Collar jobs and building the necessary experience in Engineering
and Design to actually take over the portion of the work that stays
onshore when outsourcing to China happens. India in other words is doing
what Japan did in the 1950's and 1960's. With likely the same results in
the future as Indian companies start to design and produce their own
products for the US market, just like companies like Sony, Panasonic and
Fuji did once.
-Adam
John Forbes wrote:
I'm not suggesting that China is stronger than Japan now. It
obviously isn't, but it probably will be, given the enormous disparity
in population, and the great strides they have taken in recent years.
John
On Sun, 06 Nov 2005 20:34:35 -0000, Adam Maas <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
wrote:
Japan has a larger economy and the infrastructure that permits them
to do so. China's running the ragged edge of their available
infrastructure as it is, their only advantage is a larger, less
productive population base. China's likely in for massive problems if
they don't solve their infrastructure problems, and their economy is
essentially far too crrupt for them to do that easily (Much of the
Chinese economy is essentially oowned by the PLA and the proceeds go
to purchasing military gear rather than the necessary infrastructure
upgrades which would allow them to build said gear in the future)
Which btw, is the same advantage as the USSR had over the US. The US
is smaller than the USSR was, and has significantly less resources.
But it had the advantage of a better trained, more inventive and
more productive workforce. Japan has the same advantages over China.
Note that Japan currently is tied for #2 in the Worlds Most Powerful
Navy sweepstakes (They have more modern combat ships than the UK, but
lack Carriers and SSBN's).
-Adam
John Forbes wrote:
Since Japan has approximately one tenth the population of China,
it's hard to see how they can hope to remain more powerful.
It was trying to compete in an arms race with a larger competitor
that brought down the Soviets. I can't see the Japanese being
similarly self-deluding.
John
On Sun, 06 Nov 2005 19:22:27 -0000, P. J. Alling
<[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
Nope, they just have an arms race to look forward to, or abdicate
their place as the most powerful country in Asia to China. It's
interesting but the Japanese have been arming Taiwan, (with US
help),. quietly for the last few years, and with the Chinese
stepchild of North Korea rattling it's nuclear saber periodically
the Japanese government will see itself left with few other
options, and none they will find palatable. I don't good will has
much to do with national survival. Even Venezuela , who's current
president sees himself as the heir to Castro, will sell Oil to the
US. He needs the money to fund his own ambitions, good will has
nothing to do with it.
William Robb wrote:
----- Original Message ----- From: "P. J. Alling"
Subject: Re: The sky is...
The US economy has it's problems but they are fundamentally fewer
than Japans.
Both economies are now dependent on the goodwill of foreign
countries for survival.
The peril of an oil based economy when you haven't enough of it
yourself.
Japan isn't beeing bled to death by an expensive to maintain, and
probably soon to escalate, war.
William Robb
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