On 1/17/2010 9:52 PM, Adam Maas wrote:
On Sun, Jan 17, 2010 at 7:15 PM, Graydon<[email protected]> wrote:
On Sun, Jan 17, 2010 at 06:39:52PM -0500, P. J. Alling scripsit:
It makes sense to try because the hotter it gets, the more violent
the weather gets and the drier (as a global average thing; Ontario is
likely going to get very wet for awhile) it gets.
This is an unwarranted assumption with no particular basis in fact.
The medieval warm period apparently had extremely mild weather, and
the records point to it being actually warmer then than it is today.
Cites from the peer reviewed literature, please?
Especially for what, exactly, you consider the "medieval warm period".
Pole/Equator temperature differences are a major driver of significant
storm activity, the warmer it gets the more this temperature
differential is reduced. This actually tracks well with known storm
activity, which has steadily decresed since the mid-70's.
The Medieval Climate Optimum (aka warm period) is very well documented
despite certain attempts to write it off, primarily by scientists who
have been implicated in the recently discovered CRU frauds (Michael
Mann being the most notable of these).
Adam, I was trying to stay away from Mann made global warming...
If it gets much hotter or much drier, nasty things happen like "the
Asian monsoon rains only happen some years or shut down entirely".
Once again unwaranted assumption. There's no record that this ever
happened and it cannot be precdicted from current data.
There certainly are records of this happening; monsoons *have* failed.
(This is the sort of thing Chinese imperial historians tended to write
down.)
For instance, this year's monsoon is considered to have failed in India;
see:
<http://www.indianexpress.com/news/failed-monsoon-leads-to-largescale-migration-in-kutch-tehsils/542071/>
It's hard to keep a civilization going without a consistent food supply.
Food supply is one of those things where you just have to deal with the
weather.
Warm periods in the past coincided with a warm moist North Aferica.
Moist North Africa in the Holocene corresponds with continental
glaciation, just like the existence of Lake Bonneville in the
North American inter-mountain West.
Yes, that is another corresponence, but not the only one.
Of course we can stop it. The two primary contributors are CO2 and
particulate carbon. The CO2 issue means no fossil carbon extraction and
the particulate carbon means no internal combustion engines or blast
furnaces.
Umm, no, neither are significant, water vapour drives the vast
majority of the greenhouse effect.
Historical data doesn't actually back thus up, the warming trends seem
to have no actual connection with Carbon Dioxide levels in the
atmosphere. You might want to read a Physicists debunking of the
Greenhouse Gas theory. It doesn't stand up to experiment.
http://arxiv.org/PS_cache/arxiv/pdf/0707/0707.1161v4.pdf
The above linked paper asserts that the greenhouse effect postulated for
the atmosphere violates the second law of thermodynamics. Nothing
violates the second law of thermodynamics. I knew that, but I never
examined the assumptions in climatology. One or the other is a crock.
I can't disprove the paper, and I can no longer accept the standard
climate models.
Said paper gets its thermo wrong. (Ask anyone who has taken advanced
thermo courses; physics profs get their thermo wrong all the time...)
See
<http://rabett.blogspot.com/2008/02/all-you-never-wanted-to-know-about.html>
Definitely see<http://arxiv.org/abs/0802.4324> where Arthur Smith
points out that we have a well-understood set of equations for the
temperature of a planetary body without an atmosphere, and lots of
observational data (the Moon, Mercury, etc.) to back that equation; it
predicts what we see.
Earth is 33 C hotter than that equation predicts, so the atmospheric
greenhouse effect is observed, not postulated. (Also for Titan, though
much less well characterized in that case.)
-- Graydon
CO2 is not even close to being the primary driver of the greenhouse
effect, the primary driver is Water Vapour. This is very well
documented. And human CO2 emissions are a small fraction of
atmospheric CO2. There's no good data that indicates that human
emitted CO2 has a measurable effect on global temperature (The
datasets which indicated it most strongly have been proven to be
thoroughly compromised in the last few months, CRU by unrecorded
normalization and cherry-picking along with reliance on tree-ring data
which hasn't been considered indicative of temperature or atmospheric
conditions by biologists in over a decade and Hadley by cherry-picking
of Russian data stations).
Note that global warming from the mid-70's to 1998 is very real. There
has been essentially none since 1998 according to satellite data
(essentially the only good data left now that the two remaining good
surface datasets have been shown to have significant issues) and we've
seen a drop-off over the last two years almost assuredly due to
reduced solar activity (thankfully solar activity is trending back up
over the last 6 months).
--
{\rtf1\ansi\ansicpg1252\deff0\deflang1033{\fonttbl{\f0\fnil\fcharset0 Courier
New;}}
\viewkind4\uc1\pard\f0\fs20 I've just upgraded to Thunderbird 3.0 and the
interface subtly weird.\par
}
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