On Sep 17, 2013, at 5:34 AM, Larry Colen wrote: > Prices on the K-5 II are plummeting. I think that we are getting pretty > close to the next big announcment. I'm going to take some guesses. > > 1) When you look at cameras that Ricoh and Pentax have produced lately: > GXR, Q, K-01, and even the K-5,50,500 you have a collection of > cameras where the company is not afraid to take a chance on something > different. I would be very surprised if the next camera is a "me too" > DSLR. > > 2) Each of the recent Pentax bodies has interesting mirrorless features. > DSLR, or mirrorless, it will have a strong mirrorless mode, with focus > peaking. > > 3) Mirror or mirroless, it will keep the K-mount. They just updated the > DA limiteds. They *could* be for just the current line up, but a radical > departure in camera mount seems out of character. If you look at the > percentage of Pentax sales to return customers (the only ones who know > who Pentax is), a radical change in lens mount would be shooting themselves > in the foot, because that would negate the biggest reason for many > of their customers to not change to Nikon or Canon. > > Remember that wide angle lens that they showed, but didn't talk about > at the show where they released the K-01? The one where the rear element > extended into the mirrorbox? Either the camera will be a high end, K-mount > mirrorless, or it will have a mode where you can lock the mirror up, and > use lenses that extend into the mirrorbox. If I could lock the mirror > up on my 1968 SRT-101, they should be able to do the same on a modern > DSLR. > > 4) I'd say it's an 80% chance that it will be APS, not 24x36 sensor. > Note that they released new versions of DA limiteds, not FA limiteds. > I'll guess that the sensor will be 24-30 MP, and the per-pixel performance > will be at least a stop better than the K-5 (at 1.5 - 2 times the resolution). > > I suspect that there will be non-retrofocus wide angle lenses, and the system > will have overall performance that will rival the D800 and 5DmkIII, at a > significantly lower price. > > I think that the flagship, if APS will list for $2,000. If 24x36 will list > for $2,400.
I don't see anything in your speculative description that is anything but a minor tech tweek/upgrade. There is no way I can see a new APS-C body priced at $800 more than the K-5iis unless they actually either made substantive real massive improvements in AF speed and accuracy and frame rate and buffer capacity, or they give us more color choices. ;-) A sensor with higher pixel count would be a negative for me unless and until I am convinced that they haven't sacrificed high-ISO image quality. Anything without an optical viewfinder would be a huge negative and would put the camera in the $300-350 range for me. > > 5) It will be weather sealed, with in body shake reduction. > > 6) I think that if it has a mirror, they will add focus points, but not > enough of them. > > 7) I think that they will drop the K-5, but keep the K50 and 500. > If they do keep the K-5II, the list price would need to drop to > at, or below the cost of the K-50. > > 8) I'd say 80% chance that it will not have an anti-aliasing filter > over the sensor. > > 9) There will be much gnashing of teeth, rending of shirts and pulling > of hair because it will not be just a 24x36 version of the K-5 with 40 > autofocus points. A lot of those people will at that point sell off > their pentax gear and buy a full frame canikon. Very few of them > will get photos that are technically superior to what they would have > gotten if they had stayed with Pentax. > > Why not full frame? Look at the new u4/3 cameras. Their sensors are > half the area of APS, and the sensor performance of the top end > u 4/3 cameras are getting close to that of the K-5. > > I think that the camera will likely be announced close to the beginning > of November (unless there is a big camera show before then), just in > time for the holiday wishlists. > > -- > Larry Colen [email protected] http://red4est.com/lrc > > > -- > PDML Pentax-Discuss Mail List > [email protected] > http://pdml.net/mailman/listinfo/pdml_pdml.net > to UNSUBSCRIBE from the PDML, please visit the link directly above and follow > the directions. -- PDML Pentax-Discuss Mail List [email protected] http://pdml.net/mailman/listinfo/pdml_pdml.net to UNSUBSCRIBE from the PDML, please visit the link directly above and follow the directions.
