I already predicted what I expected to see last spring, but what the
heck, I expect that Ricoh will announce, a 24mp camera either a K-3 with
a FF frame with K-5II specifications in all other ways, or a 24mp APS-C
K-5III with even more improved focusing, and a nod to improving the
flash system. I have no idea what the FF camera will look like but I'm
rather hoping this. <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pentax_MZ-S>
I think everyone who sees an improved mirrorless camera say a K-02 with
an actual EVF, is whistling in the wind. Pentax is going to build on Q
line and that's where Pentax mirrorless will stay for the time being.
Pentax practically invented the modern unibody eye level SLR with the
instant return mirror, and pentaprism. They see themselves as an
optical house, (and I doubt that's changed now that they're a division
of Ricoh) and there are now three levels of Pentax DSLR all of them
share the same 100% coverage optical viewfinder which is a selling point
I seldom see mentioned. Abandoning the Pentaprism would be like
abandoning their soul.
If against all odds Ricoh actually releases three new cameras in the
coming months, (well five since yes I agree that there will both plain
vanilla versions and extra sexy without AA filters and maybe multiple
colors just to be annoying). I expect that there might be an announced
645D II with a much higher pixel count and an almost FF 645 sensor, as
well as the two afore mentioned cameras.
There's some argument that that could be made that the APS-C cameras
might have a 20mp sensor instead of a 24mp. Sony has a very nice 20mp
Exmor sensor that Pentax could use, but using the same image in pixels
probably would allow co-development of both hardware and firmware
between the FF and APS-C bodies. Pentax is known for this kind of
development. I expect that using the same Pentaprism in all their APS-C
bodies also saves quite a bit of money in manufacture.
On 9/17/2013 5:34 AM, Larry Colen wrote:
Prices on the K-5 II are plummeting. I think that we are getting pretty
close to the next big announcment. I'm going to take some guesses.
1) When you look at cameras that Ricoh and Pentax have produced lately:
GXR, Q, K-01, and even the K-5,50,500 you have a collection of
cameras where the company is not afraid to take a chance on something
different. I would be very surprised if the next camera is a "me too"
DSLR.
2) Each of the recent Pentax bodies has interesting mirrorless features.
DSLR, or mirrorless, it will have a strong mirrorless mode, with focus
peaking.
3) Mirror or mirroless, it will keep the K-mount. They just updated the
DA limiteds. They *could* be for just the current line up, but a radical
departure in camera mount seems out of character. If you look at the
percentage of Pentax sales to return customers (the only ones who know
who Pentax is), a radical change in lens mount would be shooting themselves
in the foot, because that would negate the biggest reason for many
of their customers to not change to Nikon or Canon.
Remember that wide angle lens that they showed, but didn't talk about
at the show where they released the K-01? The one where the rear element
extended into the mirrorbox? Either the camera will be a high end, K-mount
mirrorless, or it will have a mode where you can lock the mirror up, and
use lenses that extend into the mirrorbox. If I could lock the mirror
up on my 1968 SRT-101, they should be able to do the same on a modern
DSLR.
4) I'd say it's an 80% chance that it will be APS, not 24x36 sensor.
Note that they released new versions of DA limiteds, not FA limiteds.
I'll guess that the sensor will be 24-30 MP, and the per-pixel performance
will be at least a stop better than the K-5 (at 1.5 - 2 times the resolution).
I suspect that there will be non-retrofocus wide angle lenses, and the system
will have overall performance that will rival the D800 and 5DmkIII, at a
significantly lower price.
I think that the flagship, if APS will list for $2,000. If 24x36 will list
for $2,400.
5) It will be weather sealed, with in body shake reduction.
6) I think that if it has a mirror, they will add focus points, but not
enough of them.
7) I think that they will drop the K-5, but keep the K50 and 500.
If they do keep the K-5II, the list price would need to drop to
at, or below the cost of the K-50.
8) I'd say 80% chance that it will not have an anti-aliasing filter
over the sensor.
9) There will be much gnashing of teeth, rending of shirts and pulling
of hair because it will not be just a 24x36 version of the K-5 with 40
autofocus points. A lot of those people will at that point sell off
their pentax gear and buy a full frame canikon. Very few of them
will get photos that are technically superior to what they would have
gotten if they had stayed with Pentax.
Why not full frame? Look at the new u4/3 cameras. Their sensors are
half the area of APS, and the sensor performance of the top end
u 4/3 cameras are getting close to that of the K-5.
I think that the camera will likely be announced close to the beginning
of November (unless there is a big camera show before then), just in
time for the holiday wishlists.
--
A newspaper is a device for making the ignorant more ignorant, and the crazy,
crazier.
- H.L.Mencken
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