Julio:

> If FIRE (the level) is large relative to GDP (and it must be around
> 20%), deflating FIRE deflates the whole economy.

What are you talking about Julio? Now, this is information comes from
"Bad Money" by Kevin Phillips, 2008, and he claims that his
information comes from Federal Reserve Flow of Funds Accounts of the
US. If this guy is not a liar, the domestic financial debt as
percentage of the US GDP  in 2006 was 107%. Does this "domestic
financial sector" not what FIRE mean? And, it is highly likely that in
that he is not even counting the debt associated with such derivatives
as CBOs, CLOs, ABSs, Whole Loan CMOs (the father, or mother, of CDOs),
CDSs and the like in that alphabet soup of things, who knows? Maybe he
does, maybe he does not! But bet that not all of them are included.

Here is a more academic article from someone I like and respect,
although most likely I differ from him politically:

http://www.stanford.edu/~duffie/BIS.pdf

You see, political differences are not a reason to not like a person,
unless that person is a child molester or Palin or some such thing.

Best,
Sabri
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