Jim D: Charles Brown wrote: > CB: Yep , and like you predicted , this crisis of US finance capital will > probably cause the Chinese Commnist Party, of all people, to lose state > power to....??? ( ????? smile; Now that's complexity theory and wishful > thinking)
I don't know what specifically this is a reference to, since Charles does not quote me on the subject of the CCP. But what I suggested (in a frankly speculative missive awhile back) is the possibility of the CCP _breaking up_. In that case, the CCP would lose power to a fragment of its old self or two warring factions of its old self. Of course, as I said, I don't know what's going to happen. I wasn't suggesting that the CCP might lose power opening the door to the people actually taking over and establishing democracy, but I guess it's possible. ^^^ CB:Here's the missive from a while back from Jim D.: http://archives.econ.utah.edu/archives/pen-l/2008w42/msg00135.htm [Pen-l] thinking the unthinkable A world recession usually means that we see some unexpected events. Who would have expected in the early 1980s, for example, that Mexico would need to be bailed out? in the current mess, who could have predicted that Iceland would go bankrupt? or that the "Celtic Tiger" would become the Celtic Garfield?[*] What's something else that's unexpected that could happen? how about a collapse of the Communist Party of China, perhaps showing up as an informal or formal split and the loss of its monopoly on political power? As China's exports fade, in such an export-oriented economy, that puts drastic pressure on the "new middle classes" who have benefited so much from the boom and are an important social base for the CPC. On top of that, the CPC itself has been involved in a lot of capitalist enterprises, which might go down the tubes. According to an article in HARPER'S a year or two ago, the army is also involved in such economic adventures. So we might (emphasis on "might") see the CPC fall apart. In an effort to prevent that, we might see a move in the direction of increased central planning. But there are many parts of the CPC which would oppose that... This is pure speculation. Any expert opinion would be appreciated, as usual. [*] Actually, if someone had asked me in 2006 or 2007 which countries would suffer the most from the popping of the housing bubble, I would have pointed to countries like Ireland and Spain. In general, those countries with the greatest speculative bubbles (whether in housing or not) suffer from the greatest collapses. (You'd think that the central bankers would know this... but they don't seem to. No-one wants to bad-mouth a bubble when it's swelling.) -- Jim Devine / "Nobody told me there'd be days like these / Strange days indeed -- most peculiar, mama." -- JL. _______________________________________________ pen-l mailing list [EMAIL PROTECTED] https://lists.csuchico.edu/mailman/listinfo/pen-l This message has been scanned for malware by SurfControl plc. www.surfcontrol.com _______________________________________________ pen-l mailing list [email protected] https://lists.csuchico.edu/mailman/listinfo/pen-l
