I was under the impression, at least after talking with officials in the New
York state Office of Unemployment (or whatever it was called) that their
unemployment data was not simply based on the number of people collecting
unemployment but also included estimates, based on a random sample of about
1000 households a month, which attempted to determine numbers of
"discouraged" workers, or people who want a job but stopped looking and
people who no longer qualify for benefits.  

CHAD

-----Original Message-----
From: [email protected]
[mailto:[email protected]] On Behalf Of Jim Devine
Sent: Friday, June 19, 2009 9:55 AM
To: Pen-l
Subject: [Pen-l] two questions

1. The recent stats showed the size of the US unemployment insurance
rolls falling from the previous month. The pundits saw this as a sign
of possible recovery, perhaps later this year. But: to what extent is
the fall in the number of UI recipients simply the result of (1) the
surge of the unemployment insurance rolls about 6 months ago and (2)
the fact that in a lot of states, UI payments end six months after
they start?

2. I heard Larry Summers' interview on U.S. National Public Radio
yesterday. He sounded tipsy. Is this the way he normally sounds? (He
seemed to avoid Robert Seagal's questions, always steering the
discussion toward the proposed Consumer Financial Protection Agency,
while he did admit that the Fed sees the promotion of bank profits as
central.)

-- 
Jim Devine / "Segui il tuo corso, e lascia dir le genti." (Go your own
way and let people talk.) -- Karl, paraphrasing Dante.
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