On Jun 19, 2009, at 9:55 AM, Jim Devine wrote:
The recent stats showed the size of the US unemployment insurance rolls falling from the previous month. The pundits saw this as a sign of possible recovery, perhaps later this year. But: to what extent is the fall in the number of UI recipients simply the result of (1) the surge of the unemployment insurance rolls about 6 months ago and (2) the fact that in a lot of states, UI payments end six months after they start?
The pattern has historically been that initial claims peak first and then roll over and head down, then continuing claims (which are what you're referring to here), as a recession is ending. So, this is starting to look like normal end-of-recession labor market patterns. Not that the recovery is likely to sparkle, but it's quite possible that this is the beginning of the end of the worst.
Doug _______________________________________________ pen-l mailing list [email protected] https://lists.csuchico.edu/mailman/listinfo/pen-l
