me: >> The recent stats showed the size of the US unemployment insurance >> rolls falling from the previous month. The pundits saw this as a sign >> of possible recovery, perhaps later this year. But: to what extent is >> the fall in the number of UI recipients simply the result of (1) the >> surge of the unemployment insurance rolls about 6 months ago and (2) >> the fact that in a lot of states, UI payments end six months after >> they start?
Doug: > The pattern has historically been that initial claims peak first and then > roll over and head down, then continuing claims (which are what you're > referring to here), as a recession is ending. So, this is starting to look > like normal end-of-recession labor market patterns. Not that the recovery is > likely to sparkle, but it's quite possible that this is the beginning of the > end of the worst. Yes, what I'm referring to is the continuing claims for unemployment insurance benefits (and not new claims). In yesterday's news, the continuing claims fell: from http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=105574943: >> AP, June 18, 2009 · Two new reports Thursday pointed to signs that the >> economy may be regaining its footing. The total number of people on the >> unemployment insurance rolls dropped for the first time since early >> January... >> "The recession is losing steam ... if these trends continue, expect a slow >> recovery beginning before the end of the year," Conference Board economist >> Ken Goldstein said. He said the job market will take longer to rebound. >> The total number of people on the unemployment insurance rolls dropped for >> the first time since early January, the Labor Department said, while new >> claims for benefits rose slightly. >> The total unemployment insurance rolls fell by 148,000 to 6.69 million in >> the week ending June 6 — the largest drop in more than seven years. >> The report shows that job losses are easing after companies made deep cuts >> earlier this year. But it's not clear whether recipients of unemployment >> insurance are finding new jobs or simply using up all their benefits, which >> typically last 26 weeks. >> "It is unlikely that new hiring has picked up in any meaningful fashion," >> Joshua Shapiro, chief economist with MFR Inc., a consulting firm, wrote in a >> note to clients. "More probable is that long-term unemployed are starting to >> fall off the rolls."<< this latter possibility is what I was asking about. >> The drop also breaks a string of 21 straight increases in continuing claims, >> the last 19 of which were records. A dip in continuing claims several weeks >> ago was later revised higher. >> The department also said initial claims rose 3,000 to a seasonally adjusted >> 608,000 last week, above analysts' expectations. The four-week average, >> which smooths fluctuations, fell by 7,000 to 615,750. Continuing-claims data >> lag behind initial claims by one week. >> The drop in continuing claims could signal a slowing in the rise of the >> unemployment rate, which reached a 25-year high of 9.4 percent in May. Many >> economists forecast the rate could reach 10 percent by the end of the year. >> Still, millions of Americans are receiving unemployment compensation under >> an emergency federal program authorized by Congress last summer and extended >> by the Obama administration's stimulus package. >> About 2.36 million people received benefits under that program in the week >> ending May 30, an increase of more than 102,000 from the previous week. >> That's in addition to the 6.7 million people receiving benefits under the >> 26-week program typically provided by states. >> Economists also are closely watching the level of first-time claims for >> signs the economy will recover by midsummer, as many analysts predict. >> "If the labor market is indeed stabilizing, we should see a marked decline >> in new unemployment filings in the weeks ahead," economists at Wrightson >> ICAP wrote in a note to clients this week.<< Of course, even if the officially-defined recession is ending, all that means is that real GDP has stopped its fall. It doesn't mean that real GDP will rise enough to keep unemployment rates from continuing to rise (by sopping up new entrants to the paid labor force and counteracting the normal creation of technological unemployment). Unemployment rates typically rise for a year or more after the recession ends. Recent recoveries (since the late 1980s) have been relatively "jobless," i.e., significantly lowering unemployment rates only relatively late in the game. (For example, after GHW Bush had already lost the 1992 election.) -- Jim Devine / "Segui il tuo corso, e lascia dir le genti." (Go your own way and let people talk.) -- Karl, paraphrasing Dante. _______________________________________________ pen-l mailing list [email protected] https://lists.csuchico.edu/mailman/listinfo/pen-l
