Gar Lipow <[email protected]> wrote: > Yeah, in terms of the reality: it is worth remembering that arguments > about peak oil are about timing not about whether it will happen.
I don't think so. Peak oil as you define it, if attained, does not automatically mean steadily rising prices and true costs of extraction and refining of oil (where true costs include the environmental impact). It's the latter which really counts, since it's what imposes increasing costs on humanity and nature. But prices need not rise, because of the possibility of (a) rising efficiency of the utilization of known stocks of oil to produce usable oil; and (b) growing efficiency in the use of usable oil, as when substitutes are found, along with (c) discovery of new stocks of oil. Even then, if oil prices rise steadily, it's possible that rising productivity of labor in the production of other things could dampen or even reverse the negative effects on humanity and even nature. Of course, whether or not working people receive the benefits of increased productivity depends on the success of working-class struggle. But, I agree: we have to get out of using oil and coal and the like, to save the earth from global warming and other natural disasters. If peak oil happens, that will help the transition away from fossil fuel. That's why I hope peak oil is really going to happen. BTW, U.S. National Public Radio recently reported on new techniques for getting natural gas out of the ground, so that natural gas could be extracted at significantly lower costs. Some environmentalists (who? I don't know) were cited as saying that increased use of natural gas is a good way to transition from oil and coal to renewable sources (which are currently expensive). Anyway, that's what they said. Is it reasonably true? or a bunch of lies, ignoring large environmental costs or use of ultra-scarce water resources? Inquiring minds want to know. -- Jim Devine / "Segui il tuo corso, e lascia dir le genti." (Go your own way and let people talk.) -- Karl, paraphrasing Dante. _______________________________________________ pen-l mailing list [email protected] https://lists.csuchico.edu/mailman/listinfo/pen-l
