http://www.independent.co.uk/opinion/commentators/rupert-cornwell-theres-no-sign-that-obama-will-punish-his-ally-1921815.html
Rupert Cornwell: There's no sign that Obama will punish his ally
The fracas over Israel's announcement of 1,600 new homes in
disputed East Jerusalem is undoubtedly serious. But it also
recalls the old children's ditty of how "sticks and stones may
break my bones, but words will never hurt me".
The words have flown fast and furious in Washington since Israel,
by accident or design, delivered this blow to the "peace process"
with the Palestinians that the US is working so hard to revive -
at the very moment vice-President Joe Biden was visiting the
country. But there is no sign that the Obama administration,
however genuine its anger, is about to take specific action to
punish its ally. For that reason if no other, the talk of the
worst crisis in relations between Washington and Jerusalem since
Henry Kissinger demanded a partial withdrawal of Israeli forces
from Sinai in 1975 seems exaggerated.
In 1991, a comparable row over settlements expansion led the White
House of George HW Bush to withhold housing loans guarantees to
Israel. Two months ago, George Mitchell, the US envoy, hinted that
similar action could be taken now. But nothing, at least so far,
has happened.
With his initial demand that the Israelis impose a total freeze on
settlements, Barack Obama forgot the maxim of the great Labour
foreign secretary Ernest Bevin that "the first thing to decide
before you walk into any negotiation is what to do if the other
chap says no". Israel said "no," and the Obama administration
backed down. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu may well be
calculating that he can call the administration's bluff again -
for the simple reason that no US President dare ignore domestic
political realities, least of all in an election year.
AIPAC, the powerful pro-Israel lobbying organisation, has said
that the US statements were a matter of "serious concern," and
that Washington should "take immediate steps to defuse the
tension," - in other words that Mr Obama should back down again.
In what could be read as a warning as well as a statement of the
obvious, it noted that the Jewish state enjoyed "vast bipartisan
support in Congress and among the American people". Indeed, some
even claim that the elder Bush's no-nonsense treatment of Israel
contributed to his defeat by Bill Clinton in 1992.
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