I tried to send this yesterday but it seems to have failed to go. Apologies if this is a duplicate. Gene
Begin forwarded message: > From: Eugene Coyle <[email protected]> > Subject: Re: [Pen-l] Structure of the energy system: fossil vs renewables > Date: March 24, 2012 2:22:20 PM PDT > To: Progressive Economics <[email protected]> > > Hans, > > The issues you are addressing are much more complicated than the sketch > you've made -- not that you don't recognize that. > It would be helpful to you, probably, to find and spend some time > locally with a person familar with the operation of the Utah P &L system > there in Salt Lake City. I have a friend that spends much of the year in > Salt Lake City. I'll ask her if she would be willing to talk with you. > Otherwise a staff member at the utility commission or at the consumer office, > located in the same building as the commission, might be willing to spend a > few hours with you. > > Here's a quick example of an issue you might discuss. Perhaps you have > overlooked the importance of seasonal differences in stressing diurnal. The > Pacific Northwest has excess hydro capacity in the summer time. This is base > load hydro (also called "run of the river") and in the Northwest the capacity > exceeds what the region uses. It is economical to export that excess rather > than simply deactive the turbines and let the water run into the sea. Much > of that excess is exported into California on a Direct Current transmission > line built for that purpose. California returns the power in the winter when > the water flows in the Northwest are reduced. > > Utah plays a big part in this swap of seasonal power from the Pacific > Northwest into the Los Angeles load center. Transmission lines from the > Northwest run into the Utah Power and Light area and other lines run from > there into what is effectively the Los Angeles area. The hydro power from > the Northwest, you might think, flows over those lines to Los Angeles. But > the customers in Utah would object -- saying "we want that cheap hydro for > ourselves." So Utah P &L runs its coal plants, and sells that power to LA at > marginal cost plus a mark-up (often priced on "split savings".) And then > Utah P&L says to its local customers "you are getting the hydro we import > from the Northwest, and that's cheap, and what we are sending to Los Angeles > is the more expensive power from our coal plants. And, Utah P &L would add, > "by running the coal plants even though our own load can't utilize them when > we are importing the cheap hydro, we are spreading the fixed costs over all > those kilowatt hours that LA is buying, so that lowers your rates as well." > > Utah Power & Light used to have a vice president named Dean Bryner. He was a > trained nuclear power plant guy who successfully kept UP&L out of the nuclear > biz. And because UP&L was taking a cut of the money from the Northwest power > going to LA, studies of transmission lines down the west coast to strength > the direct swap of power without giving a toll to UP&L were called "the Dean > Bryner by-pass." He's probably not around to chat with, but maybe someone at > UP&L would spend some time with you. > > That's a long story to say that things are more complicated than the > Wikipedia entry tells about the various types of power plants. > > One thing I would also stress is that Transmission and Generation, while > complementary in getting power from a generating station to the load, can and > should be thought of as sustitutes for each other (as you do in your post.) > But in planning systems they should always be thought of as substitutes, as > well as necessary for simply moving power. > > As I said, I'll check with my friend there in Salt Lake City to see if she's > in town and has some time to chat with you if you would like to do that. Her > knowledge is pretty deep, and solid. > > Gene > > On Mar 24, 2012, at 11:35 AM, [email protected] wrote: > >> >> It has often been said that renewable energy needs a >> different infrastructure than fossil or nuclear energy. >> Here is an attempt to spell out what this means. >> >> Right now electricity generation can be split into base >> load, load following, and peak load generators. >> >> Base load is always turned on (except for maintenance) and >> covers the minimum demand. It must have high reliability >> and low marginal cost, ie cheap (dirty) fuel and it must be >> large scale to get economies of scale, which requires heavy >> equipment. This makes it difficult to increase or decrease >> electricity output on the fly. But since its capacity >> factor is high it can have high capital outlays. It is >> typically coal and nuclear. >> >> Load following plants can easily be started and regulated to >> account for the variability of the load. This requires >> lighter equipment and since it is not always on, its >> marginal cost is not so important, it can be simpler >> equipment using more expensive fuel. It is typically >> natural gas. >> >> Peak load power plants cover exceptional needle peaks in >> demand, but most of the time they are turned off. They are >> typically diesel. >> >> More information about this at >> http://www.grist.org/renewable-energy/2011-05-26-how-to-get-to-a-fully-renewable-power-system >> and >> http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Load_following_power_plant >> >> >> >> Some renewables are base load (hydro and geothermal) or >> dispatchable (hydro and biofuels), therefore they fit into >> the above framework. >> >> But the main renewables, wind and solar, are neither base >> load (because they are intermittent) nor load following >> (because they are not dispatchable). On the other hand they >> have practically zero marginal costs and high capital costs. >> >> With increasing penetration of wind and solar energy, a >> series of things happen: >> >> (1) Since it becomes more difficult to adjust electricity >> supply to demand, it becomes more important to adjust demand >> to supply, i.e. demand side management (DSM). DSM is >> already relevant today for peak shaving, will become even >> more relevant in the future and it will require a smart grid >> and smart appliances. >> >> (2) base load will become more and more uneconomical because >> it will happen more and more often that all demand is >> covered by renewables, which have lower marginal cost than >> base load. In the future energy system base load plants >> are of little use. >> >> (3) Instead of base load or load following, fossil fuels >> (especially natural gas) will be needed for "residual load" >> which is highly dispatchable. It is like peak load because >> it only takes a minute or two to start up or shut down, in >> order to cover demand when the sun does not shine or the >> wind does not blow, but it must be more efficient and >> cleaner and cheaper than diesel because it will be needed >> much more often. >> >> (4) More and more often, total renewable electricity >> generation will exceed total demand. This electricity will >> be available for energy storage, so that in the long run the >> residual load does not come from fossil natural gas but from >> energy stored during the times of excess renewable supply. >> Now energy storage can take many forms, some of them >> unexpected. >> >> (5) Transmission: With the present fossil-fuel-powered >> system, transmission lines from the large-scale fossil fuel >> or nuclear power plants to the consumers are needed. This >> transmission and distribution network has tree structure: >> electricity always flows in one direction, from the >> generator to the consumers. Some renewables are >> distributed, they are close to the consumption and need no >> transmission at all but a more intelligent distribution >> system; others are large scale (concentrating solar, >> offshore wind), they need transmission to get to the >> consumers, but instead of a one-way tree-shaped transmission >> net, a more interconnected net which at night may bring wind >> energy from Nebraska and during the day bring solar energy >> from Arizona. With better local storage options and higher >> penetration of renewable energy, these transmission lines >> may not have to be very long or thick. It is not clear >> at this time how everything will play out, this will >> depend on how technology develops. >> >> (6) Transportation fuels. So far we only talked about >> electricity. Transportation must either be electrified >> (electric railroads, electric cars) or must use biofuels or >> hydrogen produced by electrolysis from renewable >> electricity. >> >> (7) Space heating and air conditioning, water heating, >> cooking: New buildings will be much more energy efficient, >> they will not need natural gas for heating and cooking but >> electricity (ground-sources heatpumps) and water will at >> least be pre-heated by the sun. >> >> (8) Combined heat and power will become the rule instead of >> the exception. Natural gas facilities for residual power >> will be smaller and cleaner than today's large scale base load >> generators; therefore they can be located in populated areas >> and the waste heat from the electricity can be used for area >> heating, greenhouses, etc. Initially this will use fossil >> natural gas, but over time it will switch to biofuels. >> >> (9) How all these things will play out depends on >> technology: whether and when there will be a breakthrough in >> battery technology, various storage technologies, fuel >> cells, also energy saving technologies for end users (LED >> lights). For climate reasons it will also be necessary to >> extract CO2 from the air and sequester it, i.e. CCS may play >> a role even after all coal-fired power plants have been >> phased out. >> >> (10) It will also depend on political constellations. The >> fossil fuel and nuclear industries are fighting tooth and >> nail against being superseded by renewables. They try to >> maintain the fairy tale that there is not enough renewable >> energy or that it is too expensive. Not true. The >> construction industry is fighting against stricter home >> efficiency standards and higher in-home technology which >> will make pre-fab homes necessary, the auto companies will >> fight against electric vehicles because electric motors last >> 20 times longer than internal combustion engines, etc. >> >> (11) There is absolutely no need to use nuclear energy, >> neither fission nor fusion. It is too expensive and too >> dangerous (especially in times of political turmoil). >> >> This is how I see it. I may have overlooked things. >> Please comment. >> >> Hans >> _______________________________________________ >> pen-l mailing list >> [email protected] >> https://lists.csuchico.edu/mailman/listinfo/pen-l >
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