On Sat, Aug 11, 2012 at 7:20 AM, Jim Devine <[email protected]> wrote:
> > Breaking News Alert > > The New York Times > > Saturday, August 11, 2012 -- 7:16 AM EDT > > ----- > > > > Mitt Romney Names Representative Paul Ryan of Wisconsin as His Running > Mate > OK, while I prefer real horse races to metaphorical ones, I admit to my attention being caught by this particular choice - so in the spirit of idle chatter here is my reply. I don't think this is such a bad choice in terms of Romney's election campaign. One) forget so-called swing voters. The number of swing voters has always been exaggerated by confusing "independents" with swing voter. Most so-called independents actually lean strongly one way or another. However in this election even the CW admits that many people have made up their mind early. Two) If the election won't be decided by swing voters, what will decide it? Turnout. If Obama loses it won't be swing voters and it won't be third parties. It will people who would vote for Obama not voting. Ditto Romney. Whoever turns out their side most wins. Three) Voter suppression. Various "anti-fraud" bills look like they may suppress up to five million legitimate votes. Even a combination of belated action by the Democrats, and more people jumping through hoops than expected I doubt the results will be less than 2.5 million people legally eligible to vote not being able to in practice. In the face of this, turning out the right is more critical than ever for Romney - much more critical than persuading a few "moderates". The Ryan pick ensures that a massive turnout machine will work for Romney, and that fire from the right that might be turned his way will be directed at Obama, or at least that live ammo aimed at Romney will be replaced with jelly beans. So from a horse race standpoint this is probably a good move.
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