Gar wrote (thank you for entering the discussion):

> When a very visible public policy makes life more hellish
> for people in the name of virtue the likely reaction is to
> demand a change in that policy rather than further changes
> to adapt to it.

You are formulating here the reason why we are past the
point where policies can do the trick.  Without a broad
grassroots movement where people in the developed nations
realize that more consumption does not lead to more
happiness, but on the contrary the pursuit of more
consumption leads to disaster, without a broad awakening
that we are all in this together and that humans everywhere
have to cooperate and preserve the ecosystem, without such a
radical cultural and philosophicl change humanity will not
be able to jump out of the groove they are in.

Assuming such a cultural change is on the way and people are
asking: how can we elicit in a fair way the cooperation of
everyone to do the heavy lifting that is required -- I think
if this is the situation, then people will embrace
individual carbon rationing as a fair framework coordinating
everybody's efforts to decarbonize their lives and the
economy.


> Leading with carbon pricing is bad policy and bad politics.

I agree with Gar that public investment must play the
leading role.  But as long as not all production is
socialized, public investment cannot do the trick alone,
there is simply not enough tax revenue.  We also need
private investment, and you will not get private investment
without demand and supply conditions that allow renewable
energy and other necessary investments to make profits.  I
think carbon rationing is the best way to create demand in
the right areas without distorting the price system
elsewhere.


> And when we talk about degradation of forests and loss of
> forest and farm soil and so on there is a whole other
> level of measurement difficulty.

For forest management it is not enough to measure CO2 but
one also needs to measure the other ecosystem services
provided by forests.  The report "World in Transition -- A
Social Contract for Sustainability" by the German Advisory
Council on Global Change (Schellnhuber) writes on p. 300:

> a purely climate protection driven transformation does not
> make sense in forest management. The WBGU recommends
> increasing the overall focus on ecosystem services, as the
> availability of safe water and soil quality are also
> decisive for the transformation.

I can recommend this report highly, it can be downloaded for free from

http://www.wbgu.de/en/flagship-reports/fr-2011-a-social-contract

The WBGU is naive about carbon trading (they recommend a
business-level cap and trade system), they do not mention
that many of their recommendations go against the spirit of
the capitalist world system, and their extensive literature
list has neither Scheer nor Lohmann.  Nevertheless this
report makes a lot of valid points which I have not found
elsewhere assembled so neatly.  I consider it obligatory
reading for anyone concerned about the climate.  I am going
to use it and the video-taped lectures of the associated
"Transformation Seminar" for my environmental economics
class next Spring.

Hans
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