I heard a Stephen Roach while driving tonight. I think it was a BBC show.
He's had a change of view about prospects for the world's economy. For several years he has been a contrarian on Wall Street -- contrary to Doug Henwood, one might say. What I mean is that Roach has been pointing out the USA deficit in balance of payments -- that it can't go on, that the budget deficit is a problem, etc. Now he's changed, though he emphasized that it is not a total reversal -- just that now he sees how things can be managed. He enumerated five things that will keep a world recession at bay. A very confused and confusing analysis. I took it to be a sign of a sharp recession soon ahead for the world -- when the last prominent bear finally switches and becomes bullish, look out. Gene Coyle
