Now he's changed, though he emphasized that it is not a total reversal -- just that now he sees how things can be managed. He enumerated five things that will keep a world recession at bay. A very confused and confusing analysis. I took it to be a sign of a sharp recession soon ahead for the world -- when the last prominent bear finally switches and becomes bullish, look out.
Roach wrote about that in his weekly dispatch: http://www.morganstanley.com/GEFdata/digests/20060505-fri.html In particular he says: --------snip And the anchor of my global view has long been -- and continues to be -- the unsustainable imbalances that have opened up between the world's creditors and debtors. That has not changed one iota. What has changed are the inputs that are fed into this thought process. They now point to a more benign strain of global rebalancing than I had previously thought. As Lord Keynes famously quipped, "When the facts change, I change my mind. What do you do, sir?" --------snip Confusing indeed. What facts exactly have changed? In his opinion, the statements from the G8 and the IMF were highly significant. I don't buy it. Maybe someone at Morgan Stanley told him to tone it down a notch? --raghu.
