Doug said: "I'd like to see cheap oil again only to shut up the peak oil types!"
Gulick sez: Indeed, many a peak oil type is a wingnut, or a gun nut, or a Malthusian misanthrope, or some other odious and undesirable species... but IMO, you lean too heavily toward the "denialist" side of things. Please explain the many decade trend of a worsening reserve/discovery ratio. I'm all ears. The sober peak oil types -- not the ones who are frontmen for the Houston energy industry set (like Matt Simmons?), and not the types adumbrated above -- that is, the eminent energy economist types (there's a really reliable chap by the name of Alfred Cavallo at Princeton), foresee non-OPEC peak in about five years' time, and global peak in about ten. Is that unreasonable? [Incidentally, that's when we're due to cross the 300ppm thresshold for CO2 in this atmosphere... unless this freaky winter (including here in northwestern Honshu) is telling us that said moment will arrive a little sooner that previously thought.] Balls to the wall pumping in Saudi Arabia, in order to undercut Iran (and possibly Russia and Venezuela per the US State Department's wishes), is only going to radically hasten the day of peak production in the kingdom, since it will damage the underground reservoirs to a degree that a go slow approach would not. Anyway Doug, on the one hand you get that gleam in your eye at the prospect of peak oil creeps getting their comeuppance... but I've seen you make the "the sooner the better" case in other contexts, in the interest of keeping us from drowning or frying. Your wishful thinking one way, then the other, is giving me whiplash! :) John Gulick Akita, Japan PS BTW, your playing of Sonic Youth's "Expressway to Yr Skull" on your show recently had me downloading the track within five minutes, and repeating it, oh, a dozen times in a row. KILLER tune. Your Voice plaudits are well-earned! _________________________________________________________________ FREE online classifieds from Windows Live Expo buy and sell with people you know http://clk.atdmt.com/MSN/go/msnnkwex0010000001msn/direct/01/?href=http://expo.live.com?s_cid=Hotmail_tagline_12/06
