You are correct. On Sun, Sep 09, 2007 at 05:36:13PM -0400, sartesian wrote: > Michael, > > Nowhere in your list do you mention profits and profitability, which > clearly are the drivers to the industry, to OPEC actions, to fears of > shortages, etc. > > I'm somewhat surprised. This, oil production, is an economic issue. > And if we're not going to give credence to the importance of profit, as > the peak oil theorists do not, then indeed this discussion should be > suspended. > > > ----- Original Message ----- > From: "Michael Perelman" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> > To: <[email protected]> > Sent: Sunday, September 09, 2007 12:18 PM > Subject: Re: [PEN-L] Peak Everything > > > > I am just concerned that people are speaking past one another. The > issues are very > > important, but with so many unknowns, we should be listening. Let me > mention what I > > would like to understand. > > > > The fear factor -- futures markets bidding up the price because of > worries about > > the Middle East, Nigeria, ... > > > > Prospects for new discoveries. > > > > Pressures from global warming. > > > > New technologies or social measures, such as the restriction of sprawl > to limit > > demand. > > > > New fronts in imperialism, such as the emergence of Africa as a > supplier. > > > > The retreat to nuclear power generation. > > > > Increasing demand from China, India, .... > > > > And most of all the prospects for an intelligent analysis of the > subject (not just > > here on the list, but nationally, world-wide). > > > > I am sure that I left a lot off the table. > > > > > > > > On Sun, Sep 09, 2007 at 11:18:00AM -0400, Doug Henwood wrote: > > > I don't mean to question your authority Michael, but these are > > > entirely reasonable non-flamey economic points. This is an important > > > issue - why can't it be discussed? Are you shutting it down just > > > because it inflames one participant? > > > > > > Doug > > > > > > On Sep 9, 2007, at 11:13 AM, Michael Perelman wrote: > > > > > > > Please stop this! > > > > > > > > > > > > On Sun, Sep 09, 2007 at 10:53:24AM -0400, sartesian wrote: > > > >> I hardly know where to begin, given the amount of misinformation, > and > > > >> misconstruction of facts and theories in your post, but........ > > > >> > > > >> 1. Super-giant fields explored. This is unknown. There are > those in > > > >> the industry who argue that only the surface super-giants have > been > > > >> explored. Western Iraq may hold reserves equal to all currently > > > >> known > > > >> reserves in Iraq. Then again it may not. > > > >> > > > >> But either way-- the supposed negative correlation of field sizes > and > > > >> dates of discovery is another of the peak oil mis-theories. > > > >> > > > >> 2. "My solution" is precisely not to "throw money," mostly > because > > > >> there is no evidence that peak oil is a problem, that peak oil > is > > > >> driving any single aspect of capitalist activity. The invasion > of > > > >> Iraq, > > > >> and the planned invasion of Iran, had and have absolutely nothing > > > >> to do > > > >> with declining supplies. Rather, the invasion, like the OPEC > > > >> price run > > > >> ups, have everything to do with declining rates of return and > > > >> overproduction of oil, where the ease and reduced cost of > production > > > >> caused the price collapse of 1998. Since then, it's all been > > > >> about the > > > >> petroleum majors aggrandizing more profit. Check the portion of > > > >> total > > > >> profits reported by S&P 500 that is actually claimed by the > petroleum > > > >> companies. > > > >> > > > >> 3. As far as devaluing our currency and everyone getting bailed > > > >> out with > > > >> valueless dollar-- first, it's not my currency, and I couldn't > give a > > > >> rat's ass if and when it gets devalued, overvalued, undervalued, > > > >> and or > > > >> goes to zero. But as far as this mythology of the US valueless > > > >> dollars, and its fiat money, and its now looming weakness in the > > > >> face of > > > >> BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and why not Japan, another > big > > > >> holder of US currency instruments?)-- that's just that, a > mythology. > > > >> > > > >> People should look at Bernake's address in 2005 about the global > > > >> savings > > > >> gluts-- and keep in mind that since 2001, US industries, US > > > >> producers, > > > >> have spent far less of their earnings on investment and capital > > > >> expansion, than they have retained to their own accounts. The > > > >> "unlocking" of US housing equity to finance the "expansion" of > the > > > >> economy, is based on that fact, as the quickening of US household > > > >> debt > > > >> was financed to replaced US corporate investment, and provide the > > > >> market > > > >> for our now so much "stronger" trading partners. > > > >> > > > >> The other component of this is the rapid and dramatic swing of > the US > > > >> govt accounts from surplus to deficit-- a swing of some 7% of GNP > in > > > >> about 2 years, as once again, reduced taxes and expanded military > > > >> spending put the retainer in retained earnings. > > > >> > > > >> ----- Original Message ----- > > > >> From: "The Buffalo In Da' Midst" > <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> > > > >> To: <[email protected]> > > > >> Sent: Sunday, September 09, 2007 9:46 AM > > > >> Subject: Re: [PEN-L] Peak Everything > > > >> > > > >> > > > >>> On 9/8/07, sartesian <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > > > >>>> How about it? How about this: Reserves, are by definition an > > > >> economic > > > >>>> category not geological. By definitions reserves are an amount > of > > > >> oil > > > >>>> that can be produced in a specified period of time, using the > > > >> currently > > > >>>> available technology, and at a profit. > > > >>>> > > > >>>> You should look it up. > > > >>>> > > > >>>> The fact that every single peak oil theorist and advocate > either > > > >>>> ignores, obscures, or is simply unaware of the definition of > > > >> reserves > > > >>>> tells us all we really need to know about the theory, the > > > >>>> theorists, > > > >> its > > > >>>> inevitability, and where the butter is on the bread. > > > >>>> > > > >>> > > > >>> I'm aware of what reserves are, and the structure of geological > > > >>> formations that allow FOR the creation of oil to fill those > reserves > > > >>> (...all found, with ALL KNOWN super-giant field explored, except > > > >>> perhaps the planetary poles) and the difficulty the oil > companies > > > >>> are > > > >>> going to have replenishing those reserves with increasingly > smaller > > > >>> geological formations that DON'T replenish either... at least > not > > > >>> for > > > >>> a loooooooong time. > > > >>> > > > >>> If your solution is 'throw money into exploration, development & > > > >>> recovery', the Iraq (and perhaps soon-to-be Iran) war, and the > > > >>> ongoing > > > >>> strife in Nigeria and other parts of Africa are an example of > the > > > >>> expenditures in cash (almost a half-trillion dollars for Iraq > > > >>> currently) & social stability (MEND or some other player will > > > >>> eventually destroy the Nigerian government unless the U.S. wants > to > > > >>> 'Somalia' them at another massive cost of war), then tell me how > the > > > >>> oil companies would recoup their investment? > > > >>> > > > >>> Pass it on to the consumer buying increasingly expensive oil > into an > > > >>> decreasingly valued dollar? > > > >>> > > > >>> I'm assuming of course that the continuation of wars made > blatantly > > > >>> for the sole purpose of acquiring oil will devalue our currency > and > > > >>> cause major sociological disturbances that will disrupt > consumption > > > >>> patterns as well. > > > >>> > > > >>> ...or does everyone just get bailed out finally with valueless > > > >> dollars? > > > >>> > > > >>> lcm > > > >>> > > > > > > > > -- > > > > Michael Perelman > > > > Economics Department > > > > California State University > > > > Chico, CA 95929 > > > > > > > > Tel. 530-898-5321 > > > > E-Mail michael at ecst.csuchico.edu > > > > michaelperelman.wordpress.com > > > > -- > > Michael Perelman > > Economics Department > > California State University > > Chico, CA 95929 > > > > Tel. 530-898-5321 > > E-Mail michael at ecst.csuchico.edu > > michaelperelman.wordpress.com > >
-- Michael Perelman Economics Department California State University Chico, CA 95929 Tel. 530-898-5321 E-Mail michael at ecst.csuchico.edu michaelperelman.wordpress.com
