But you don't know what the amount of oil is. You don't know at what rate it can be produced, replaced, etc. We do know the economics behind the OPEC price spikes, and price drops. We do know the functions served by the price spikes and drops. ----- Original Message ----- From: "Michael Perelman" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> To: <[email protected]> Sent: Saturday, September 08, 2007 6:35 PM Subject: Re: [PEN-L] Peak Everything
> What you say will not affect my point. Plot the level extraction over time, even if > 1/4 of a gallon is left untouched. There will necessarily be some peak point in > time. Admittedly, if the peak is less than 1/4 gallon, it is possible that one > final rush of extraction of the last remaining 1/4 gallon in a single period could > create a new future peak, but in any case, a peak is a certainty (although 2 or more > periods) could be in a tie as peak periods). > > On Sat, Sep 08, 2007 at 03:18:01PM -0700, Jim Devine wrote: > > On 9/8/07, Michael Perelman <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > > > Assume, for the sake of argument that you know the total quantity available -- let's > > > say it's a gallon. Each period you remove some until you reach some point where it > > > is uneconomical to continue. At some point, you reach a peak. Of course, it is > > > probable that the decline will not be monotonic, but the peak will remain the peak. > > > > what if the amount you take out gets smaller and smaller over time, as > > the price rises? that is, as it slowly becomes "uneconomical" to take > > oil out of this fixed pool, people find substitutes for oil and figure > > out how to use oil more efficiently (driving Priuses, etc.) With > > increases in efficiency, the pool of oil may be constant or shrink, > > but the effective benefit received can increase. > > > > the issue about the meaning of inevitability is crucial. Sure, the > > collapse of capitalism is "inevitable," since the system is > > anti-human. It will kill either itself or humanity. If the latter > > goes, so does capitalism. QED. > > > > However, there are _counteracting forces_ which should always be > > remembered. Abstract tendencies can be expressed very differently in > > practice. > > -- > > Jim Devine / "We are what we repeatedly do. Excellence, then, is not > > an act, but a habit." -- Aristotle. > > -- > Michael Perelman > Economics Department > California State University > Chico, CA 95929 > > Tel. 530-898-5321 > E-Mail michael at ecst.csuchico.edu > michaelperelman.wordpress.com >
